All four Madeira warning areas go orange for rain and wind from 18:00 on Saturday as IPMA's named storm Bruna arrives. Eight mainland districts have yellow rain warnings today, and IPMA expects over 200 mm in the mountains by 13 November.
A study in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the atmospheric rivers behind Portugal's 2025 to 2026 storms matched, and locally exceeded, the moisture transport simulated for the early stages of the highest-emissions scenario.
A study of 1980 to 2025 data finds tropical nights rising by about 0.7 a decade nationally and by more than two a decade near the Spanish border. What it measured, this summer's run of hot nights, and the DGS advice on heat.
IPMA's seasonal outlook, built on Copernicus models, expects November to January to run 1.0 to 1.5 °C warmer than normal on the mainland, with extra rain from December. IPMA warns the forecast is probabilistic. What it means for heating, flooding and warnings.
IPMA's provisional count puts 2026 at nine heatwaves, the most in a year, and 98 heatwave days, beating 97 in 2009. The 98 is a national day total, not one long heatwave; the longest run at a single station was 13 days.
IPMA puts Vouzela at maximum rural fire danger today and 48 municipalities from Porto to Faro at very high. At both levels the law bans extensive burning, bonfires, rockets and smoking in rural areas, and limits brushcutters and chainsaws.
IPMA has four southern districts on yellow alert for thunderstorms on Sunday. Its forecasts then show a dry, fresher week, with Lisbon near 20 °C and the first cold nights inland, down to about 3 °C in Guarda and Bragança.
