Portugal's Wholesale Power Price Jumped a Third in the Second Quarter, and April's Record Oil Reaches Gas Bills About Six Months Later

Wholesale electricity in Portugal averaged €55.6 per megawatt hour in the second quarter of 2026, a third more than in the first quarter and a third more than a year earlier, according to the quarterly commodities bulletin published on Thursday by the Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos (ERSE, the energy services regulator). Two forces drove it: an oil price shock that set an all-time record, and a weaker year for Portuguese renewables.

The numbers

• Portuguese wholesale power (OMIE): €55.6/MWh in the second quarter, up 32.7 percent on the €41.9 of the first quarter and up 33.0 percent year on year.
• Brent crude: averaged 104.7 dollars a barrel, up 29.2 percent on the quarter and 46.4 percent on the year.
• European gas hubs: the basket averaged €45.1/MWh, up 13.1 percent. America's Henry Hub went the other way, down 40.1 percent to €8.6.
• Carbon allowances: €75.2 a tonne, down 1.3 percent, on softer European industrial demand.
• Renewables share: 69 percent of mainland consumption in the first half of 2026, against 77 percent in the same period of 2025.

The record behind the quarter

ERSE puts a date on the peak. On 7 April 2026 Brent touched 145 dollars a barrel, beating the previous record of 139 dollars set in 2008. The regulator attributes it to the escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting fear of a serious interruption to world supply. Prices fell back afterwards as the geopolitical risk premium drained away, but the first half of 2026 still averaged 93 dollars a barrel.

The production numbers show how sharp the squeeze was. OPEC output fell 29 percent quarter on quarter against a 2 percent fall outside the cartel, pushing the non-OPEC share of world production to 79.2 percent. World production dropped below world consumption for the first time in over a year.

Why this reaches Portuguese bills later, not now

The most useful line in the bulletin is not a price at all. ERSE puts the correlation between Brent, on a six-month moving average, and the cost of natural gas entering Portugal for last-resort suppliers at 80.2 percent. That is because the take-or-pay contracts underpinning Portuguese gas supply are indexed to Brent or its derivatives, with an average lag of about six months.

Read forward, the April oil spike lands in Portuguese gas costs around the fourth quarter of 2026, which is when heating demand peaks. Electricity futures already say as much: contracts for delivery in the third quarter of 2026 averaged €82.5/MWh during the second quarter, 21.5 percent above the previous quarter's price for the same product, and first-quarter 2027 contracts sit at €72.9 against €65.6.

The renewables side compounds it. Portugal has grown used to some of Europe's cheapest electricity on the back of hydro, wind and solar, and solar became the largest single source in July. But the renewable share of consumption fell eight points year on year, and every point lost is filled by dispatchable gas plants buying fuel at hub prices. That is the mechanism by which a Middle East conflict reaches a Portuguese meter.

What this means for foreign residents

• Regulated tariffs move on a lag: Nothing in this bulletin changes your bill this month. It changes the input costs ERSE will weigh when it sets 2027 tariffs, and the futures curve points upward for the winter quarter.
• If you are on a fixed contract: Check when it expires. Renewals negotiated over the winter will be priced off a forward curve that is materially higher than the one in force when many current contracts were signed.
• One piece of good news: Grid regulation charges passed to consumers fell 19 percent in the quarter to €17.2/MWh, after Storm Kristin pushed them to €21.1 in the first quarter. Those costs are the ones ERSE wants every household to share.
• Timing your consumption still pays: The cheap overnight window shifts back half an hour for 2027, and the wider the wholesale spread, the more a time-of-use tariff is worth.

ERSE's forward view, drawing on United States Energy Information Administration forecasts, is for consumption to recover gradually from the third quarter of 2026 with production rising alongside it, a trend it expects to hold through 2027. Longer-dated gas contracts agree: delivery in 2027 is priced below the second quarter's spot. The near term is the problem, and in Portugal the near term arrives with a six-month delay.