Portugal's Estate Agencies Post Record First-Half Revenue Even as Home Sales Fall 7.7%

Portugal's biggest estate-agency networks have just closed their most lucrative first half in years — and they did it while selling fewer homes. Between January and June, the number of house sales fell 7.7% year-on-year to 75,860 transactions, according to data from Confidencial Imobiliário. Yet the leading agency networks that report to business daily ECO grew their revenue by roughly 9% and their business volume by about 5.6% over the same period, several of them setting outright records. It is a paradox that captures the state of the Portuguese housing market in one line: fewer keys changing hands, but each sale worth far more.

The arithmetic behind it is simple. The Residential Price Index compiled by Confidencial Imobiliário showed home values up 18.6% year-on-year in June. When prices climb that fast, a shrinking pile of transactions can still generate a growing pile of commission. That said, the pace is a shadow of a year ago: in the first half of 2025, the same networks saw revenue and business volume both surge more than 30%.

The individual results tell the story. Keller Williams booked €43 million in revenue, up 13.3% and its best half ever in Portugal, on a broadly flat count of around 7,300 deals. Era's revenue rose to €63.2 million even as its number of operations slipped 1.6%, from about 6,400 to 6,300; its chief executive, Rui Torgal, argued the constraint is "not a lack of buyers" but "a lack of supply", noting that listings grew 7% to 19,040 properties. Remax — the country's largest network — did not disclose transaction numbers but reported business volume up 3.7% to €4,217 million, with the average sale price jumping to €239,900 from €213,500 a year earlier. Only Zome bucked the national trend on volume, lifting transactions 11% to 5,563.

The other engine is who is buying. Figures from the statistics office INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística — National Statistics Institute) show that in the first quarter of 2026, buyers with a tax domicile abroad paid a median 29.7% more per square metre than resident buyers — a gap that widens to 34.5% in Greater Lisbon and 24.5% in the Algarve. Corporate buyers, both financial and non-financial, paid €2,142 per square metre, up 33.8% on the year. A market increasingly weighted toward foreign and institutional money naturally produces higher-value deals, even when the overall count is falling.

What This Means for Expats

• The affordability squeeze is structural, not cyclical. Prices are rising because supply is scarce, not because demand is overheating. Waiting for a correction is a bet against the fundamentals driving this market.
• You will likely pay a premium as a non-resident buyer. The INE data quantifies it: expect to pay meaningfully more per square metre than a local, especially in Lisbon and the Algarve.
• The buyer pool is diverse, not just Anglo-American. At Remax, Brazilians led foreign purchases (7.63% of results), ahead of Angolans, Americans, French and Ukrainians — useful context if you assume the "foreign buyer" is always from Northern Europe or the US.
• Agents are competing for listings, not buyers. With qualified demand outstripping stock, the leverage sits with whoever controls the property. If you are selling, that is your advantage; if you are buying, expect to move fast on anything well-priced.

For residents already watching rents grind higher and tighter mortgage rules narrow their options, the message from the agencies is unwelcome but clear: until Portugal builds substantially more housing, the money will keep flowing even as the doors keep closing.