Diesel and Petrol Set to Fall 9 to 12.5 Cents a Litre on Monday, Taking Petrol Back Below 2 Euros for the First Time Since August
Sector forecasts put diesel down 9 to 11 cents and petrol down 11.5 to 12.5 cents from Monday 9 November, as Brent heads for its steepest weekly fall since 2020. The weekly fuel-tax order, which could trim the discount, was not yet published by Friday afternoon.
Filling up should cost much less from Monday 9 November. Sector forecasts published on Friday put diesel down 9 to 11 cents a litre and petrol down 11.5 to 12.5 cents. If they hold, simple 95 petrol would fall below 2 euros a litre on average for the first time since the week of 24 August, according to ECO.
Each forecast comes from a different place. RTP reported that Anarec (Associação Nacional de Revendedores de Combustíveis, the national association of fuel retailers) expects petrol to fall 11.5 cents and diesel 9 cents, and said those figures already allow for changes to the fuel tax. ECO, citing the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP, the Portuguese automobile club), reported diesel down 11 cents and petrol down 12.5 cents. A market source told ECO, using Friday morning's prices, that diesel would fall 10 cents and petrol 12 cents.
Why prices are falling
The fall follows a slide in oil prices. ECO reported that Brent crude futures, the benchmark for Europe, were trading at about 98 dollars a barrel on Friday morning. That put them on course for a weekly fall of almost 17 percent, the largest since April 2020. ECO linked the slide to expectations that the conflict with Iran will ease after President Trump's Republicans lost ground in the United States midterm elections, and the dollar's sharp fall since the vote has helped European buyers. According to ACP data cited by ECO, an 11-cent cut would be diesel's biggest weekly fall since 21 March 2022.
The prices are still high. ECO calculates that since the week of 2 to 6 March, before the conflict began, diesel has risen by 57.5 cents a litre and petrol by 30.3 cents, before next week's cuts.
The tax order for next week is not out yet
The final pump price also depends on the weekly tax order, which resets the discount on the ISP (imposto sobre os produtos petrolíferos e energéticos, the tax on petroleum and energy products). By early Friday afternoon, the new order had not appeared in the Diário da República (official gazette), and the government had not announced its terms.
The current order, Portaria n.º 471-A/2026/1, gives a discount of 109.94 euros per 1,000 litres on diesel and 64.60 euros on petrol (about 11 and 6.5 cents a litre). Its preamble explains how the discount works. It kicks in only when a fuel costs more than 10 cents above its price in the week of 2 to 6 March, and it hands back the extra VAT the state collects on dearer fuel. If pre-tax prices fall, the extra VAT shrinks, so the discount can shrink too and take back part of the fall. We covered last week's order here.
What a tank would cost
DGEG (Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia, the energy directorate) recorded mainland averages on Thursday 5 November of 2.205 euros a litre for simple diesel and 2.000 euros for simple 95 petrol. These include station discounts.
Applying Friday's forecasts to those averages (our calculation, not an announced price):
- Diesel: about 2.095 to 2.115 euros a litre. A 50-litre tank would cost about 104.75 to 105.75 euros, down from 110.25 euros.
- Petrol 95: about 1.875 to 1.885 euros a litre. A 50-litre tank would cost about 93.75 to 94.25 euros, down from 100.00 euros.
Friday's close, the exchange rate and the tax order could still move these figures. If you can wait until Monday to fill up, you will probably pay less. To compare stations near you, use DGEG's fuel price portal. Every pump must also show its "ISP+IVA reduction" figure.
