Portugal Widens Its Fuel-Tax Discount for Next Week, but Diesel Is Still Tipped to Rise 2 to 2.5 Cents a Litre on Monday

The government has widened the temporary fuel-tax discount from Monday 2 November, but diesel drivers are still likely to pay a little more. Sector forecasts reported by ECO put diesel up 2 to 2.5 cents a litre on Monday and petrol down 2.5 to 3.5 cents.

What the new tax order changes

The ISP (imposto sobre os produtos petrolíferos, the tax on petroleum products) is reset every Friday. This week's order is Portaria n.º 471-A/2026/1, published in the Diário da República (official gazette) on 30 October. It covers mainland Portugal only.

• Diesel: the discount rises from 103.47 euros to 109.94 euros per 1,000 litres, or from about 10.35 to 10.99 cents a litre. The ISP rate falls from 258.13 euros to 251.66 euros per 1,000 litres, so about 0.65 cents a litre less tax before VAT.
• Petrol: the discount rises from 61.48 euros to 64.60 euros per 1,000 litres, from about 6.15 to 6.46 cents a litre. The rate falls from 436.04 euros to 432.92 euros, about 0.31 cents a litre less before VAT.
• Pump display: the "Redução do ISP+IVA" (ISP plus VAT reduction) figure every station must show rises from 0.241 to 0.249 euros a litre for diesel and from 0.218 to 0.222 euros for petrol.

The previous week's figures come from Portaria n.º 467-A/2026/1, which we covered last Sunday. The discount kicks in when a fuel's price is more than 10 cents above its level in the week of 2 to 6 March, and it hands back the extra VAT the state collects on dearer fuel. Parliament has already kept the scheme running until 31 December.

The government and the market disagree on petrol

The order's preamble says the government expects both diesel and petrol to rise next week. ECO, citing data from the ACP (Automóvel Club de Portugal, the Portuguese automobile club), reported diesel up 2.5 cents and petrol down 2.5 cents. A market source told ECO, on mid-morning prices, that diesel would rise 2 cents and petrol fall 3.5 cents.

What it means for you

DGEG (Direção-Geral de Energia e Geologia, the energy directorate) recorded a mainland average of 2.190 euros a litre for simple diesel on Friday 30 October, across 1,684 stations, and 2.030 euros for simple 95 petrol, across 1,802 stations. If the forecasts hold, diesel would land near 2.21 to 2.22 euros and petrol near 1.995 to 2.005 euros. That is our own arithmetic, not an announced price.

• Diesel: filling up this weekend saves roughly 1 to 1.25 euros on a 50-litre tank.
• Petrol: waiting until Monday should save roughly 1.25 to 1.75 euros on 50 litres.
• The station matters more: on 30 October DGEG's diesel prices ran from 1.959 to 2.464 euros a litre. Compare them on DGEG's Preços dos Combustíveis Online portal.

A separate change: tighter control of fuel resellers

President António José Seguro also promulgated, on 30 October, Decree n.º 112/XVII of the Assembleia da República. According to the Presidency's note, it amends the VAT code and the Special Consumption Taxes code to widen the tax regime that applies to resellers of liquid fuels. It also amends Decree-Law 31/2006 to strengthen traceability, certification and control across the national petroleum system, to curb tax evasion and chain fraud.

The President noted that the government may have skipped a step the EU VAT Directive requires: a special derogation must be requested through the European Commission and cannot be applied until the EU Council authorises it. He signed because the government told parliament it would make that request. The note does not say when the new rules will apply.