Portugal's economy explained: GDP data, market trends, business developments, inflation, real estate, and economic policy. Analysis of how economic trends affect daily life and expat finances.
Portugal's debt agency has scrapped the €5,000 cap on online purchases of Savings Certificates. Using the DUC payment mechanism, savers can now subscribe any amount in one transaction up to €250,000 — as the July base rate hits 2.356%.
The government has sketched more than €6 billion of new motorway concessions for 2029-2031 — its first road PPP in 18 years — while opening talks with Brisa over the A8 and A15. The tolling model is still undecided.
From 1 July, Decreto-Lei 97/2026 cuts VAT on building or renovating a home to 6% from 23% — capped at a €660,982 sale price or €2,300 rent. Non-residents get a recoverable 7.5% transfer tax, self-builders can reclaim the difference, and moving out in year one triggers a 10% IMT surcharge.
On 1 July, Environment and Energy Minister Maria da Graça Carvalho said the government had asked the ENSE regulator to explain why petrol and diesel barely moved even as crude fell about 10% — a 'rockets and feathers' gap she called something that 'has no reason to be.'
Having hit NATO's 2% of GDP target for the first time in 2025, Portugal is pitching its 380-plus defence firms to American investors. The sector's revenue has grown 20% in a decade, 40% of output is exported, and Lisbon wants rising military budgets to flow into domestic industry.
Portuguese wholesale electricity averaged about €41.9/MWh in early 2026 — while most of Europe sat above €90. Renewables supplied 78.5% of the grid, third-highest in Europe behind Norway and Denmark, with solar output up 25%. Cheap power, though household bills lag the spot market.
From 1 July, Portugal finally applies the EU's MiCA regulation to crypto. The Bank of Portugal handles authorisation and prudential oversight while the CMVM polices conduct, with fines reaching €5 million. A grandfathering window has closed, leaving only a handful of licensed operators.
