The ECB left its deposit rate at 2.50 percent on Thursday, hours after Christine Lagarde said she will step down on 7 February 2027. Euribor rose on all three tenors, and Deco Proteste puts the next 12-month revision at up to 88.70 euros a month more on a typical loan.
The ECB wants national supervisors able to treat banks with up to 10 billion euros in assets as small, with fewer reviews and far less reporting. Of the 91 Portuguese credit institutions the Banco de Portugal supervises, 73 are in the Crédito Agrícola group.
September's climb in Euribor rates feeds into every variable-rate loan reviewed in October. Borrowers on the 12-month index are hit hardest, with a rise of about 14 percent on a 150,000 euro mortgage.
The ten-year Treasury bond yield peaked at 4.0141 percent on Friday before closing at 3.971. It was 3.20 percent in January. Economists blame a global bond sell-off, not Portugal, but the 2027 interest bill was already rising.
ECB ends its 33-month pause with a 25bp lift to a 2.25% deposit facility, framed by Lagarde as a 'warning signal' against re-accelerating inflation, while the ESM's same-day annual report flags Portuguese energy dependence, PRR slippage and storm damage as 2026 risk triggers.
Tuesday's fixing lifts Portugal's three-month Euribor 2.2 basis points to 2.373% — the highest since March 2025 — with the 6-month at 2.606% and 12-month at 2.866%, all advancing on the same session that brings the European Central Bank's June policy meeting into view.
Thursday's ECB Council meeting carries directly into Portuguese mortgages via the 12-month Euribor and into the 3.31% Portuguese 10-year via the Bund spread. Markets attach 75% probability to a 25bp cut.
