Fuel Prices to Drop From Monday as DGEG Forecasts Six-Cent Decline in Diesel Despite Ongoing Energy Crisis

DGEG Forecasts Diesel to Fall Six Cents and Petrol 3.5 Cents From 13 April — a Rare Reprieve as Global Energy Markets Remain in Turmoil

Portuguese drivers will see fuel prices fall from Monday, 13 April, according to forecasts published by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG). Diesel is expected to drop by approximately six cents per litre, while petrol could decline by around 3.5 cents.

Aviation is also adapting to volatile fuel costs — TAP Air Portugal has launched Economy Prime, a new cabin designed to generate higher per-seat revenue without retrofitting aircraft.

If confirmed, the average price of diesel would fall to around EUR 2.085 per litre and petrol to approximately EUR 1.908 per litre. The DGEG cautioned that these are forecast figures based on closing prices of raw materials and that actual pump prices may vary depending on the station operator and location. For broader context, see Galp's Berbigão / Sururu unitization approval and pre-sal portfolio read.

A Counterintuitive Drop

The forecasted price reduction may strike many consumers as surprising, given the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader disruption to global energy markets triggered by the US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026.

The explanation lies in the distinction between crude oil markets and refined fuel markets. While jet fuel — a specialist product with limited alternative supply routes — has surged 95 per cent since the conflict began, road fuels have been partially insulated by several factors: the International Energy Agency's emergency release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves in March, increased US crude exports to Europe, and the fact that European refineries have been pivoting production away from aviation-grade kerosene toward road-grade diesel and petrol to meet domestic demand.

Currency movements have also played a role. The euro has strengthened modestly against the dollar in recent weeks, reducing the cost of oil imports priced in dollars for eurozone buyers.

Still Historically Expensive

Even with Monday's expected decline, Portuguese fuel prices remain well above recent averages. Diesel at EUR 2.085 per litre is roughly 18 per cent higher than the same period in 2025, reflecting the structural pressure of reduced Middle Eastern supply on global markets. Petrol at EUR 1.908 per litre is similarly elevated compared with last year.

Portugal is particularly exposed to energy price fluctuations. The country imports nearly all of its oil and refined products, has no domestic crude production, and its single major refinery at Sines — operated by Galp — cannot alone meet national demand across all fuel grades. The Matosinhos refinery near Porto was permanently closed by Galp in 2021, further concentrating the country's refining capacity.

The Week Ahead

The DGEG's weekly fuel forecast has become a closely watched indicator since the Hormuz crisis began. Each Monday's price adjustment reflects the previous week's movements in international commodity markets, Brent crude benchmarks, and refining margins — meaning the direction can reverse quickly if the geopolitical situation deteriorates further or if strategic reserve releases are scaled back.

The CGTP national strike planned for 17 April could also disrupt fuel distribution if transport workers join the action, though the union has not specifically targeted fuel logistics in its current demands.

For the roughly 6.5 million vehicles registered in Portugal, Monday's price drop offers modest relief. But with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and no diplomatic resolution in sight, energy analysts warn that the current decline may be a temporary reprieve in what remains a structurally constrained supply environment.

Background: See the Saturday ISP fuel-tax discount lift and Monday pump-price reset. On the pump-price and household-fuel-cost side, our read on the Monday 18 May pump-price reversal — gasolina simples 95 at €2.016/L (+4 cêntimos) and gasóleo at €1.970/L (+1 cêntimo) on ANAREC's DGEG-anchored Friday forecast as Brent punches past $107 on Hormuz pressure sets the latest reference. On the fuel-tax side of the cost-of-living tape, our 22 May ISP-portaria read — the Finance Ministry lifting the extraordinary ISP discount on Friday evening to €63.56 per 1,000 litres of diesel and €60.40 per 1,000 litres of gasoline from Monday 26 May, with an Anarec forecast of a 1.5-cent pump-price rise as the trigger and the Iran-and-Hormuz channel feeding through to the next forecourt cycle sets the latest reference. On the fuel-pricing and ISP-recalibration side of the file, our 29 May read on the Ministério das Finanças ISP fuel-discount recalibration — diesel −1.9 cents per litre to €43.80/1000L and gasoline −1.8 cents per litre to €42.18/1000L from Monday 1 June 2026, with Brent crude sliding below $100 per barrel and the sector reading a 12-cent gross / 10-cent net pump-price drop on the week sets the latest reference.