A Nobel Laureate Prescribes 90-Day Court Rulings to Unblock Portugal's Stalled Growth
In a CIP-commissioned study, 2024 Nobel economist James Robinson and Nuno Palma argue a binding 90-day limit on court decisions would do more to revive Portugal's economy than almost any other reform. Judges warn rigid deadlines could put the quality of justice at risk.
A Nobel laureate has handed Portugal a blunt prescription for its sluggish economy: make the courts decide faster. In a study presented on Thursday at the Museu do Oriente in Lisbon, the economist James A. Robinson — who shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics — and the economic historian Nuno Palma argue that a legally binding 90-day limit on court rulings would do more to unlock growth than almost any other single reform.
A "silent catastrophe"
The report, titled "Desbloquear o Crescimento de Portugal" (Unblocking Portugal's Growth), was commissioned by the Confederação Empresarial de Portugal (Business Confederation of Portugal, or CIP) and the Instituto Amaro da Costa (IDL). It is built partly on interviews with thirteen business leaders across textiles, maritime transport, energy and health, and it frames slow justice and bureaucracy as a "silent catastrophe" that quietly drains the economy.
The numbers the authors cite are stark. Administrative and tax appeals can take more than a thousand days to reach a first decision — roughly five times the European median — while final rulings at the Supremo Tribunal Administrativo (Supreme Administrative Court) can drag on for close to a decade. Companies contesting a tax bill, they note, often wait more than two years just for an initial tribunal ruling. The trap, the authors argue, is an incentive structure that rewards public officials for not deciding: inaction carries no penalty, while acting can invite legal jeopardy.
The 90-day rule
Their central proposal is a hard ceiling of 90 days for court decisions, reached in phases — 250 days, then 180, then 120 — with weekly monitoring of progress and inquiries by the Conselho Superior da Magistratura (Superior Council of the Judiciary) for judges who blow past the limit. It sits alongside a longer list of structural changes: tacit approval for smaller licences, a lighter touch on regulation, a "flexisegurança" (flexicurity) labour model, and closing chronically under-enrolled university courses.
The stakes, the authors say, are national. By their reckoning Portugal has slipped from around 90% of the average EU living standard three decades ago to roughly 75% today — a relative decline they attribute in large part to a state that moves too slowly.
Judges push back
The judiciary is not convinced. The Conselho Superior da Magistratura has cautioned that rigid deadlines imposed from outside could put the quality of decisions — and citizens' rights — at risk, warning against treating complex cases as items to be cleared against a stopwatch. That tension, between the economic case for speed and the legal case for care, is likely to define the debate as the government weighs which of the study's ideas, if any, to take up.
