Brussels' 4 June European Semester package projects Portugal's net public spending growing 5.6% in 2027 against an agreed 1.2% ceiling — a cumulative 2.1% of GDP deviation that ranks second-worst in the eurozone behind France.
DGAL Q4 2025 tape shows 8% of Portuguese municipalities now settle supplier invoices past the 60-day legal limit — almost double Q3's 4.8% reading. Tábua, Caminha and Melgaço post the worst PMPs at 146, 121 and 115 days. Government to publish quarterly worst-payer rosters.
OECD's June Outlook cuts Portugal's 2026 growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.2% on the Middle East oil shock, but improves the budget-balance path to zero in 2026 and -0.1% in 2027, leaving Lisbon's three official forecasters reading from increasingly divergent scripts.
CGD's 29 May AGM signs off €1.25 billion dividend to the State drawn from 2025 results plus €300M of reserves, and approves a €1.5B capital increase lifting share capital to €6 billion.
The Conselho das Finanças Públicas (CFP) flags that Portugal's pension-update formula has been applied as the law sets out in only 10 of the past 17 years, with €1.355 billion in extraordinary measures layered on in 2025 alone. The drift is now a structural feature of the pension envelope.
Thursday 14 May 2026: Tribunal de Contas Comissão Permanente parecer brands the Government's TdC reform bill 'verdadeiramente inconstitucional'; the €10 million visto-prévio carve-out halves external control from €10 bn to €5 bn and opens 'zonas de vazio' for corruption. Debate opens 20 May.
The IMF's 2026 Article IV concluding statement — released Tuesday in Lisbon — recommends Portugal reverse the IRS Jovem and the IVA reduzido on restaurants, replace the fuel-excise cut with targeted support, and link early retirement to the statutory age.
