The Government expects 2.3 percent growth this year and 2.1 percent in 2027, a 0.1 percent surplus and debt at 84.5 percent of GDP. The fiscal council endorses the forecasts but says 2027 growth is the most optimistic around and this year's inflation figure is unlikely.
The Public Finance Council's September update sees faster growth and pay, prices up 3.2 percent on fuel, deficits from 2027, and job growth fading to zero by 2030 as fewer new workers arrive.
The Conselho de Finanças Públicas (CFP, Public Finance Council) — Portugal's independent fiscal watchdog chaired by Nazaré da Costa Cabral — projects net spending (despesa líquida) growth of 6.9% for 2026, a figure that sits roughly 230 basis points...
Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento told the DN annual conference on 15 June 2026 that the 2027 IRS-cut decision will depend on the próximos-meses macro and public-accounts read, with the €40,000 marginal-rate compression and the 2028 derrama-estadual carve-out on the calendar.
The Conselho das Finanças Públicas (CFP) flags that Portugal's pension-update formula has been applied as the law sets out in only 10 of the past 17 years, with €1.355 billion in extraordinary measures layered on in 2025 alone. The drift is now a structural feature of the pension envelope.
The Conselho das Finanças Públicas projects 2027-28 primary current spending growth above the path Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento committed to Brussels. The Thursday 28 May reading flags rigidity in pensions and civil-service wages and calls the 2% growth forecast overly optimistic.
BdP puts Q1 2026 public debt at 91% of GDP — 1.3 points above end-2025, €283.2 billion. The CFP separately tells Bruxelas and Parliament the 2% 2026 growth forecast is biased upwards versus IMF 1.9% and BdP 1.8%, and that Portugal overshot the 2025 EU expenditure path.
