Showers and Thunderstorms Linger Until Wednesday, Then High Pressure Brings a Dry End to the Week
Six southern and central districts are on yellow alert for thunder, hail and gusts this afternoon. Tuesday looks wettest in the north, and IPMA expects settled weather from Thursday.
The unsettled weather that brought thunderstorms and hail warnings to the south on Saturday is set to last until about Wednesday, before high pressure settles over the mainland and makes rain unlikely for the rest of the week, according to the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA).
Today: thunderstorm warnings in six districts
IPMA has put six districts under a yellow warning for thunderstorms from noon to 21:00 on Sunday: Lisbon, Setúbal, Santarém, Évora, Beja and Portalegre. The warning covers localised thunderstorms, rain that can reach 10 to 20 millimetres in an hour, hail under 2 centimetres across and gusts of 70 to 90 kilometres an hour.
On Saturday afternoon Setúbal and Évora were briefly on orange, the second-highest level, for the same mix of thunder, heavy rain, hail and gusts, with nine other districts on yellow.
IPMA's forecast for Sunday gives Beja a 100 percent chance of rain and Évora 98 percent, with showers and possible thunder in both, while Porto and Braga should stay mostly dry. It is still warm: Lisbon, Évora and Beja all expect highs of about 28 degrees.
Monday to Wednesday: showers that are hard to pin down
An upper-level low centred to the west and north-west of the Iberian Peninsula is behind the instability, IPMA says in its weekly outlook. Until Wednesday, conditions favour showers and thunderstorms anywhere on the mainland and at any time of day, though they are most likely inland in the afternoon. Some showers may bring hail and stronger gusts.
The institute stresses how local these storms are: it is not possible to predict far in advance exactly where and when they will strike, so some places may see little or no rain at all.
Tuesday looks like the wettest day across the north and centre. IPMA's city forecasts give Porto, Braga, Coimbra and Bragança a 92 to 98 percent chance of rain on Tuesday, and Viseu and Guarda 100 percent, with Porto's high falling to about 20 degrees. Lisbon's chance of rain is 67 percent on Monday, with possible thunder, and 86 percent on Tuesday.
| City | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 55% | 67% | 86% | 51% | 0% |
| Porto | 4% | 63% | 92% | 25% | 0% |
| Coimbra | 61% | 94% | 98% | 53% | 0% |
| Évora | 98% | 88% | 82% | 27% | 0% |
| Faro | 51% | 35% | 71% | 69% | 25% |
Chance of rain, from IPMA's city forecasts issued early on Sunday 4 October.
Thursday onwards: drier and settled
From Thursday 8 October, IPMA expects anticyclonic influence to build gradually, making rain unlikely for the rest of the week. Winds should be mostly light, stronger in the mountains and, from Wednesday, along the west coast.
Temperatures will not change much. IPMA expects highs of 22 to 27 degrees, reaching 25 to 30 degrees inland south of the Tagus, and lows of 7 to 17 degrees, coolest in the interior north and centre and mildest on the Algarve's south coast.
What it means
The rain comes after a long, warm summer: IPMA ranks summer 2026 as mainland Portugal's third hottest since 1931. Short, intense downpours can flood streets and underpasses quickly, so drivers in the warned districts should allow extra time this afternoon. IPMA updates its warnings several times a day at ipma.pt.
