Savings Certificate Demand Runs So Far Above Forecast That the State Widens Its 2026 Issuance Cap by 60 Percent, to 16 Billion Euros

The Government has raised the amount of savings certificates and Treasury certificates the State may issue this year from 10 billion euros to 16 billion euros, an increase of 60 percent, because households are buying far more of them than it planned for. The change is made by Despacho n.º 12933/2026 (order), signed on 19 October by the Minister of State and Finance, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, and published in the Diário da República (official gazette) on Friday 23 October.

The order amends Resolução do Conselho de Ministros n.º 1-A/2026 (Council of Ministers resolution) of 2 January, which set the limits within which the IGCP (the Treasury and public debt agency) may borrow in 2026 under the State Budget law. It says private savers' interest in Certificados de Aforro (savings certificates) "has been significantly exceeding" the forecasts behind that resolution, and that demand for Certificados do Tesouro Série 5 (Treasury certificates), launched on 6 July, has also run above the scenario the Government used.

Less borrowing from the markets

With more money coming from small savers, the State needs less from the markets. The same order cuts the 2026 limit for Obrigações do Tesouro (Treasury bonds) from 35 billion euros to 27.5 billion euros, and for Bilhetes do Tesouro (Treasury bills) from 18 billion euros to 15 billion euros. A fourth limit, which the order ties to short-term special debt certificates (CEDIC) bought by public bodies with cash to spare, rises from 32 billion euros to 36.5 billion euros. All stays within the 2026 State Budget's overall net borrowing ceiling.

The latest figures

Bank of Portugal data updated this week show the stock of savings certificates reached 45.39 billion euros at the end of September, a new high, up from 44.60 billion euros in August and 40.19 billion euros at the end of December. That is about 5.2 billion euros more in nine months. The stock of Treasury certificates kept falling, to 6.33 billion euros, down from 7.74 billion euros at the end of 2025, as redemptions outpace new sales.

What it means for you

The higher limit gives the IGCP room to keep selling both products for the rest of the year. Their terms are unchanged:

• Savings certificates, Série F. The gross rate for new subscriptions in October is 2.500 percent, the maximum. According to the IGCP technical sheet, the base rate is the average three-month Euribor over the previous ten business days, set each month and capped at 2.50 percent, with a loyalty bonus from the second year (0.25 points, rising to 1.75 points in years 14 and 15). Interest is paid quarterly and reinvested, net of IRS (income tax). Each person may hold one account, with a minimum holding of 100 euros and a maximum of 250,000 euros in Série F (500,000 euros including the older Série E). You can cash in once the first interest payment is made.
• Treasury certificates, Série 5. The Série 5 sheet sets fixed rates for each of its ten years, from 2.35 percent in year one to 3.35 percent in year ten, with interest paid annually and not reinvested. The minimum is 1,000 euros and the maximum 1 million euros per account. Early redemption is allowed only after the first year, and you lose the interest accrued since the last payment.

Both are sold through AforroNet (for existing users), at CTT (the postal service), at Espaço Cidadão (citizen service desks) and through the digital channels of Banco de Investimento Global. Our guide to buying savings certificates explains how to open an account.