Portugal's Inflation Reaches 3.8 Percent in October on Fuel, and Motorway Tolls Look Set for a Similar Increase in January
INE's flash estimate puts October inflation at 3.8 percent, up from 3.6 percent, with energy 17.4 percent dearer than a year ago. The excluding-housing rate of 3.72 percent is the one toll contracts use, pointing to tolls up about 3.82 percent from 1 January.
Portugal's annual inflation rate rose to an estimated 3.8 percent in October, from 3.6 percent in September, according to the flash estimate published on Friday by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE, Statistics Portugal). Energy again did most of the work: prices of energy products were 17.4 percent higher than a year earlier, up from 15.3 percent the month before.
The figure matters beyond the shopping basket. October's inflation, excluding housing, is the number that motorway concession contracts use to update tolls each January, and on Friday's estimate it points to a rise of about 3.8 percent from 1 January 2027.
What INE's estimate shows
INE's flash estimate is based on the price information collected up to the date of release. For October 2026 it gives:
- Core inflation: 2.8 percent, up from 2.7 percent. This measure leaves out energy and unprocessed food, the most volatile items, to show underlying price pressure.
- Energy: 17.4 percent, up from 15.3 percent.
- Unprocessed food: 3.7 percent, the same as in September. Processed food rose 1.5 percent.
- Monthly change: prices rose 0.2 percent between September and October, after a 1.2 percent jump in September. In October 2025 the monthly change was nil.
- 12-month average: 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent.
- Harmonised index: the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used to compare countries across the euro area, rose 3.9 percent, from 3.6 percent.
September's rate was itself driven by fuel, as our report on the September flash estimate showed. In its October Economic Bulletin, the Bank of Portugal had expected inflation to peak near 3.6 percent at the end of the year; October's estimate is already above that. INE will publish the final October figures on 11 November.
What it means for motorway tolls
According to Dinheiro Vivo, Decreto-Lei n.º 294/97 (a 1997 decree-law on motorway concessions) ties the yearly toll update to year-on-year inflation excluding housing on the mainland, in the last month with figures published before 15 November. That month is October.
INE's estimate puts the CPI excluding housing at 3.72 percent in October. Jornal de Negócios and Dinheiro Vivo reported on Friday that, on that basis, tolls would rise about 3.82 percent on 1 January 2027. The extra 0.1 percentage points comes from the deal struck in December 2022, when inflation pointed to a toll rise of about 10 percent for 2023. The Government then capped the 2023 increase at 4.9 percent, with the State paying part of the difference, and in return allowed the concessionaires to add 0.1 percentage points to the yearly update for the following four years, ECO reported at the time.
The 3.82 percent is an expectation, not a tariff. Dinheiro Vivo noted that the flash figure is not binding and that the final data arrive on 11 November. There is a second reason for caution: the 3.72 percent in INE's flash release is for the whole country, while the formula, as reported, uses the mainland figure, which the flash release does not give. Until the final figures and the new tariffs are published, drivers cannot know the exact rise on any given motorway.
