Portugal's Goods Deficit Deepens by 3 Billion Euros This Year as Fuel Prices Inflate Both Exports and Imports in September
Exports of goods rose 5.7 percent in September and imports 7.2 percent, INE said, with fuel prices behind much of both. From January to September the goods deficit reached 27.88 billion euros, 3.01 billion more than a year earlier.
Portugal's exports of goods rose 5.7 percent in September from a year earlier, to about 7.61 billion euros, while imports rose 7.2 percent, to about 10.82 billion euros, the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE, Statistics Portugal) reported on Monday. Imports grew by 723 million euros and exports by 409 million, so the monthly goods deficit came to 3.21 billion euros, 314 million more than in September 2025.
Over the first nine months the gap is wider still. Exports grew 3.0 percent and imports 5.7 percent, leaving a goods deficit of 27.88 billion euros, 3.01 billion more than in January to September 2025. A month ago, our report on the August figures put that increase at 2.45 billion euros.
Fuel prices on both sides of the ledger
Fuel and lubricants again did much of the work. Exports in that category were 89.5 percent higher than a year earlier, mostly because of price (up 61.5 percent) rather than volume (up 17.4 percent). Leave fuel out and exports grew only 1.2 percent. On the import side, fuel made up 74 percent of the month's increase, and without it imports rose just 2.1 percent.
- Prices: INE's import unit value index, a proxy for prices, was 8.4 percent higher than a year earlier; for exports the rise was 6.2 percent.
- Machinery: exports of capital goods rose 21.2 percent and imports 11.1 percent, mostly machinery and mechanical appliances.
- Transport equipment: exports fell by about 81 million euros on September 2025, and in the first nine months they were 4.6 percent lower, according to INE's data tables.
- Fuel's share: fuel accounted for 26.1 percent of September's deficit, against 14.9 percent a year earlier. Without fuel, the deficit was 2.37 billion euros.
The quarter looks better than the month. In July to September, exports rose 6.4 percent and imports 3.8 percent, and the quarterly deficit improved by 130 million euros, to 9.32 billion euros.
Spain up, Germany down, the United States back up
Exports to Spain, the largest market, rose 21.8 percent in September, and to Belgium 57.9 percent, both driven by industrial supplies and fuel. Exports to Germany fell 36.2 percent, which INE puts down mainly to fewer chemical products sent for processing without a change of ownership; without those shipments, sales to Germany rose 3.7 percent. Exports to France rose 5.7 percent.
Exports to the United States rose 28.7 percent in September, to 397 million euros, after the fall reported in August. Over the third quarter as a whole they were still 3.9 percent lower than a year earlier. Exports outside the EU rose 16.4 percent in the month. On the import side, purchases from Spain rose 11.9 percent and from Brazil 26.6 percent, mostly crude oil, while imports from Nigeria, mainly liquefied natural gas, almost tripled.
What it means for you
- Energy is the common thread: the same price rise that inflates the fuel import bill shows up in household costs. INE's flash estimate for October put inflation at 3.8 percent, with energy products 17.4 percent dearer than a year earlier.
- Goods are only part of the picture: these figures cover goods, not services such as tourism, so a wider goods deficit does not by itself measure Portugal's overall position with the rest of the world.
- Expect revisions: the numbers are preliminary, and INE warns that changes to electronic customs declaration systems may lead to larger revisions than usual.
- Next data: October's figures are due on 10 December 2026.
