BdP Lifts 2026 Investment Forecast to 4.5% on Sines Start Campus Data-Center Surge — Imports Re-Rated to 3.7%, Goods Balance Slides to -0.2% of GDP

The Banco de Portugal (Bank of Portugal, BdP) Boletim Económico — Junho 2026 (June 2026 Economic Bulletin) re-rated its central 2026 projections on the back of a single ledger entry: the Start Campus data-center build under way at Sines, whose Nvidia-loaded equipment shipments are pulling the national accounts in opposite directions on either side of the trade ledger. The Banco lifted its 2026 gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth forecast from 3.8% to 4.5%, and the goods-and-services import forecast from 1.9% to 3.7% — a near-doubling — while the goods-and-services balance was nudged from a positive 0.6% of GDP to a negative 0.2%.

What's Actually Being Shipped

The Start Campus Sines Data Centre Campus, in operation since 2024 on the perimeter of the Porto de Sines (Port of Sines) industrial cluster, is moving from build phase into the chip-installation phase. Nuno Alves, head of the BdP research department, told the press conference on 15 June that the campus is taking delivery of an initial wave of 12,600 Nvidia GPU units used in AI training, with an additional 66,000 Nvidia Rubin-generation chips contracted by Nscale for 2027 onward (a €695 million capital commitment). The cumulative envelope across the Start Campus campus, the Nscale chip package and the parallel CALB Chinese lithium-battery plant pencilled in for the same Sines industrial zone reaches €8.5-€10 billion across the projection horizon, with €2.067 billion of that for the CALB battery facility alone.

The critical macro feature: the import content of this investment is, in BdP's own description, "practically 100%". GPUs, server racks, switchgear and battery cells are all manufactured outside Portugal. The new GFCF capacity therefore lands on the national accounts as both a positive contribution to investment and an offsetting negative contribution to net exports — leaving aggregate GDP almost unmoved in 2026, and re-routing the upside into 2028+ once the data centre's compute capacity feeds export-priced AI services.

The Current-Account Read

The 0.8-point swing in the goods-and-services balance — from +0.6% to -0.2% of GDP — is the largest current-account revision in any single BdP Boletim issue since the 2022 energy-import shock. The Banco's current-account projections (which add the primary and secondary income balances) hold the headline number positive thanks to EU transfer inflows and tourism receipts, but the cyclical capacity to print 1-2% surpluses that Portugal has maintained since 2023 is paused for the duration of the Sines build-out.

Why Now

The chip flow stepped up materially in the second quarter, after the May customs filings cleared an Nvidia consignment routed through Lisbon airport's freight terminal and trucked south. The Aduana de Sines (Sines Customs Office) — currently being upgraded to handle direct port-side clearance under a plan slated for 2027 — has been the bottleneck in earlier shipments, prompting the routing workaround. The BdP's revision incorporates the post-May trade prints alongside the equipment-procurement calendar Start Campus and Nscale published to suppliers in April.

What This Means for Expats and Residents

• GDP optics in 2026: Headline growth will look flat-to-soft this year because the Sines investment lift is netted against the import drag — don't read 1.8%-1.9% as a stalled economy; the productive capacity is being installed, not foregone.
• EUR rate read: A goods-and-services balance flipping negative on a one-off equipment cycle is not a balance-of-payments stress signal; the BdP holds the broader current account positive, so euro funding conditions for Portuguese mortgages — see the April housing-credit print at 2.86% on new loans — are unchanged on this revision.
• Sines labour market: Construction, electrical and logistics premia in the Sines-Setúbal corridor stay elevated through 2026; the parallel MadoquaPower2X €2.8B green-hydrogen complex and the CALB battery plant compound the pull on skilled trades.
• Tax and IRS implications: Higher GFCF is the slow-burn lever the government can use to argue for sustaining the 2027 IRS-cut path the Finance Minister tied to the próximos-meses macro print this week; expect Sines to feature as the headline argument in the next Programa de Estabilidade.
• Property market read-across: Sines housing stock and Santiago do Cacém-Grândola hinterland already moved on the 2024-2025 Start Campus payroll; expect a second leg through 2027 as Nscale, CALB and the green-hydrogen cluster hire to staffing peak.

The Banco's projection horizon shifts the macro pay-off into the 2028-2030 window, when the Sines data-centre compute capacity is forecast to begin exporting AI-services billings and partly amortise the 2025-2027 import bill. Whether that timing holds depends on the Aduana de Sines on-site customs facility actually opening in 2027 as planned, and on whether the Nvidia Rubin generation lands inside the projection-window delivery schedule Nscale published in April.