A DN/Aximage Barometer Knocks the AD Into Third Place Behind Chega, With the Government's Approval at a Legislature Low

Portugal's governing coalition has slipped to third place in the latest DN/Aximage barometer — the monthly poll run by the newspaper Diário de Notícias with the Aximage institute — in the weakest reading for Luís Montenegro's administration since the legislature began.

The survey puts the Socialist Party (Partido Socialista, PS) back out in front, with the hard-right Chega in second and the ruling Aliança Democrática (Democratic Alliance, AD), the PSD-CDS bloc, pushed into third at around 23 percent of the vote. Chega, on roughly 26 percent, has overtaken the parties of government for the first time in this barometer — a symbolic reordering of a party system the AD topped only a few months ago.

The mood towards the executive is bleaker still. Close to seven in ten respondents gave the government a negative evaluation, the lowest of the term, and a similar share said the explanations offered by the Interior Minister, Luís Neves, over his private dealings had not been enough. Even among AD voters, a majority judged his account insufficient.

A minister who has become the story

Neves, a former national director of the Judicial Police (Polícia Judiciária, PJ) whom Montenegro appointed to the Ministry of Internal Administration (Ministério da Administração Interna) in February, is the subject of a Public Ministry (Ministério Público) inquiry into suspected abuse of power and asset irregularities. Fresh disclosures this week — additional land holdings in the Alentejo and questions over declarations he was legally required to file — have kept him in the headlines and, the numbers suggest, dragged the whole cabinet down with him.

Chega has moved to capitalise, opening a parliamentary inquiry into Neves's years at the PJ, while Iniciativa Liberal (Liberal Initiative, IL) has demanded an urgent hearing before Parliament's standing committee. The opposition's calculation is plain: with the government already governing without a majority, every week the affair runs is a week the AD is not talking about its own agenda.

The stakes before the 2027 budget

The timing matters. Montenegro must shortly open negotiations on the 2027 State Budget (Orçamento do Estado), and a resurgent PS — which this week set out its own red lines on pensions, health and the Constitution — now does so from a position of renewed strength in the polls. A barometer is a snapshot, not an election, and the next national vote is not scheduled for years. But a sitting minister under criminal investigation, an approval rating at a term low and an emboldened opposition on both flanks leave the coalition with little room to manoeuvre as the autumn's budget arithmetic begins.