The October Economic Bulletin credits a strong spring, EU recovery money and the pension and IRS measures. Jobs growth slows to 0.3 percent by 2028 as migration eases, and imports push the trade balance into deficit.
INE's monthly estimates show employment falling every month since May's record high, while unemployment held at 5.7 percent. The gap is people leaving the labour force, and the drop is concentrated among men.
The average payment has risen to about 700 euros, but wages have outrun the caps, a Bank of Portugal study finds. Six in ten claimants are back at work within a month of leaving the benefit, though four in ten earn less in real terms.
Energy prices were 15.4 percent higher than a year earlier, INE's flash estimate shows, while core inflation barely moved. Unemployment held at 5.7 percent in August.
The Council gave final approval on Monday to the overhaul of EU social security coordination. Most changes, from unemployment benefit to long-term care, apply two years after publication.
On a visit to Luanda, labour secretary of state Adriano Moreira said Portugal needs workers, pointed to a new labour attaché now in post in Luanda and tied the formal route to social protection from the first day.
A working group led by the PSP's private security department starts in early October and must deliver a proposal to replace the rules of Lei n.º 34/2013 by early April 2027, covering training, supervision, new technology and critical infrastructure.
