President Seguro Convenes Defence Council as Portugal Weighs NATO Spending and Middle East Response

President Jose Luis Seguro has convened an extraordinary meeting of the Superior Council of National Defence for March 31, a move that underscores growing concern within Portugal's leadership about the country's security posture as the Middle East conflict intensifies and transatlantic tensions within NATO reach new heights.

The announcement, confirmed on Thursday, comes against a backdrop of sharp rhetoric from Washington. Former US President Donald Trump, now seeking a return to office, recently described NATO without the United States as a "paper tiger" -- a characterisation that has prompted European capitals, including Lisbon, to reassess their defence commitments with renewed urgency. For broader context, see the new Defender Portugal civic-military programme proposed by PSD and CDS-PP.

What the Defence Council Does

The Superior Council of National Defence (Conselho Superior de Defesa Nacional) is Portugal's highest advisory body on defence and security matters. Chaired by the president, it includes the prime minister, key cabinet ministers, the chiefs of the armed forces, and senior parliamentary figures. It meets infrequently and typically only when significant strategic decisions are under consideration.

The agenda for the March 31 meeting has not been publicly disclosed, but several pressing issues are likely to dominate. These include Portugal's response to the escalating Iran conflict, the country's defence spending trajectory, and the implications of a potential reduction in US commitment to European security.

Defence Spending Under Scrutiny

Portugal currently spends approximately 1.55 per cent of GDP on defence, well below the NATO target of 2 per cent that most alliance members have pledged to reach. The country has committed to meeting the target by 2029, but the timeline has been criticised by allies as insufficiently ambitious given the deteriorating security environment.

Increasing defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP would require Portugal to find roughly an additional 1.5 billion euros annually -- a substantial sum for a country that has worked hard to achieve fiscal discipline and maintain a budget surplus. The political challenge is significant: military spending competes directly with healthcare, education, and housing priorities that are more immediately visible to voters.

However, the case for increased spending has grown harder to dismiss. The Iran conflict has exposed Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern energy routes and the limited capacity of European navies to secure vital shipping lanes without American support. Portugal's strategic position on the Atlantic coast and its sovereignty over the Azores -- home to the important Lajes airbase -- give it outsized significance in NATO's Atlantic defence posture.

The Azores Factor

The Lajes Field airbase on Terceira island in the Azores has long been a key node in NATO's transatlantic logistics chain. While US operations at the base have been significantly scaled back in recent years, any reconfiguration of NATO's Atlantic strategy could see renewed interest in the facility. For Portugal, this represents both an opportunity for strategic leverage and a responsibility to ensure the base remains operational and relevant.

What It Means for Residents and Expats

Defence policy might seem distant from daily life, but its implications are practical. Increased military spending would have to be funded from somewhere -- either higher taxes, reduced spending elsewhere, or increased borrowing. Any of these choices would affect the fiscal environment that residents and businesses operate in.

More immediately, Portugal's positioning within NATO and its response to the Middle East crisis will influence the country's diplomatic standing, its attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment, and the broader security environment in which its growing expatriate community lives.

The March 31 meeting will not produce immediate policy changes -- the Defence Council advises rather than decides. But it will signal the direction of Portugal's strategic thinking at a moment when European security assumptions that have held for decades are being fundamentally questioned. (Background: see our piece on the Tancos paiol appeal ruling.). (Background: see our piece on the Portugal's NATO Air Policing detachment at Ämari Air Base.)

Background: See the Sesimbra-Seixal NATO ammunition depot servitude case at the PGR.