Portuguese Wine and Olive Oil Lose Ground in America as US Tariffs Bite

Two of Portugal's signature exports are losing ground in one of their most important markets. New European figures show that Portuguese wine sales to the United States fell 14.05% in value to €87.76 million, with average prices down 7.78% and volumes off 6.80% compared with 2024 — a retreat that mirrors a wider slump in European wine and olive oil across the Atlantic.

The United States is Portugal's second-largest wine market after France, so the decline is more than a rounding error. Across the European Union, wine and wine-product exports to the US dropped 14% (a €721 million loss), while olive oil and table olives fell 22% by value (€589 million) even as the volume shipped rose 8% — a sign that tumbling prices, not lost demand, drove the value down. Overall EU agrifood exports to the US slid 6% in 2025, to €28.6 billion.

Tariffs, but not only tariffs

The obvious culprit is trade policy. Washington imposed a 15% tariff on a broad range of EU products from 1 September 2025, raising the shelf price of a European bottle or tin for American buyers. Yet the European Commission notes that the decline began before the tariffs formally took effect, as importers front-loaded orders early in the year and then pulled back. A weaker dollar against the euro at points in the year compounded the squeeze.

For Portugal, the stakes are structural. Wine, olive oil and cork together account for roughly three-quarters of the country's agricultural exports, and Portugal is the EU's second-largest olive oil producer. A sustained hit to US demand pushes producers to lean harder on other markets — the United Kingdom, Brazil, Angola and the rest of the EU — and to defend margins as prices soften.

The pressure comes as Portugal reworks its wider economic pitch, from a tourism strategy that now favours value over volume to the strength of its top-rated smaller firms, many of them exporters.

What This Means for Expats

• At the table: Softer producer prices and redirected supply could mean better value on Portuguese wine and olive oil within Portugal and across the EU.
• If you run a business: Exporters selling to the US face a tougher year; diversifying markets and hedging currency exposure are back on the agenda.
• Region by region: Douro, Alentejo and Trás-os-Montes producers are among the most US-exposed, so local economies tied to wine and oil may feel the pinch first.
• The bigger trend: This is another channel through which global trade tensions reach Portugal, following the recent jump in diesel prices driven by events far from Lisbon.

Whether the slump proves a one-year shock or a lasting realignment will depend on how the tariff standoff evolves — and on how quickly Portugal's cellars and mills can find thirstier buyers elsewhere.