Portugal's Goods Exports Rebound 10% in the Second Quarter, Snapping Two Quarters of Decline

Portugal's goods exports rose 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to a rapid estimate from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE, Statistics Portugal), reversing a slide that had persisted through the previous two quarters. The rebound, powered by an unusually strong April, is the clearest sign yet that foreign demand for Portuguese-made goods is recovering after a soft patch that set in late in 2025.

The headline figures from the flash estimate:

• Exports up 10% in April to June, measured against the same quarter of 2025.
• Imports up 8.2%, accelerating from just 2.7% growth in the first quarter.
• April carried the quarter, with exports leaping 15.5% — the best month since mid-2024 — followed by a 5.1% gain in May. June's detailed data is due on 7 November.
• Stripped of re-exports (goods that pass through the country without a change of ownership), exports grew a more modest 2.7% while imports actually fell 4.9%.

The trade gap is narrowing as well. In May alone, Portugal ran a goods deficit of €2,811 million, some €514 million smaller than a year earlier — a reminder that even a buoyant export quarter still leaves the country buying more from abroad than it sells.

The turnaround matters because trade in goods had been a drag on output since the final quarter of 2025, when both exports and imports shrank. INE described the second quarter as "an inversion of the declining trend" — welcome news for a small, open economy where exports of goods and services are worth roughly half of gross domestic product. The faster-growing import bill is a double-edged signal: it often reflects companies restocking and investing, but it also keeps the pressure on the trade balance.

The data lands amid a run of cautiously upbeat indicators. A CIP/ISEG barometer recently pegged spring growth at around 2%, even as higher oil prices eat into company margins, while Lisbon has just sent Brussels a seventh and final revision of its recovery plan. Public spending is running hot too, with state purchasing hitting a record €24.8 billion in 2025.

What This Means for Expats

• Jobs and hiring: Export-facing industries — from footwear and machinery to autos and agri-food — drive much of Portugal's private-sector hiring. A sustained export recovery tends to feed through to job openings and wage bargaining power.
• The wider economy: With trade worth about half of GDP, stronger exports underpin the growth forecasts that shape everything from interest-rate expectations to the government's room for tax cuts.
• A caveat on the figures: This is a rapid estimate and can be revised. The re-export-adjusted numbers (exports up just 2.7%) suggest the underlying momentum is real but more measured than the eye-catching 10% headline.

The full second-quarter trade release, with June included, will confirm whether April's surge was a one-off or the start of a firmer trend. For now, after two quarters of retreat, Portugal's exporters have at least stopped the slide.