Portugal's Goods Exports Rebound 10% in the Second Quarter, Snapping Two Quarters of Decline

Portugal's goods exports rose 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to a rapid estimate from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE, Statistics Portugal), reversing a slide that had persisted through the previous two quarters. The rebound, powered by an unusually strong April, is the clearest sign yet that foreign demand for Portuguese-made goods is recovering after a soft patch that set in late in 2025.

The headline figures from the flash estimate:

• Exports up 10% in April to June, measured against the same quarter of 2025.
• Imports up 8.2%, accelerating from just 2.7% growth in the first quarter.
• April carried the quarter, with exports leaping 15.5% — the best month since mid-2024 — followed by a 5.1% gain in May. June's detailed data is due on 7 November.
• Stripped of re-exports (goods that pass through the country without a change of ownership), exports grew a more modest 2.7% while imports actually fell 4.9%.

The trade gap is narrowing as well. In May alone, Portugal ran a goods deficit of €2,811 million, some €514 million smaller than a year earlier — a reminder that even a buoyant export quarter still leaves the country buying more from abroad than it sells.

The turnaround matters because trade in goods had been a drag on output since the final quarter of 2025, when both exports and imports shrank. INE described the second quarter as "an inversion of the declining trend" — welcome news for a small, open economy where exports of goods and services are worth roughly half of gross domestic product. The faster-growing import bill is a double-edged signal: it often reflects companies restocking and investing, but it also keeps the pressure on the trade balance.

The data lands amid a run of cautiously upbeat indicators. A CIP/ISEG barometer recently pegged spring growth at around 2%, even as higher oil prices eat into company margins, while Lisbon has just sent Brussels a seventh and final revision of its recovery plan. Public spending is running hot too, with state purchasing hitting a record €24.8 billion in 2025.

What This Means for Expats

• Jobs and hiring: Export-facing industries — from footwear and machinery to autos and agri-food — drive much of Portugal's private-sector hiring. A sustained export recovery tends to feed through to job openings and wage bargaining power.
• The wider economy: With trade worth about half of GDP, stronger exports underpin the growth forecasts that shape everything from interest-rate expectations to the government's room for tax cuts.
• A caveat on the figures: This is a rapid estimate and can be revised. The re-export-adjusted numbers (exports up just 2.7%) suggest the underlying momentum is real but more measured than the eye-catching 10% headline.

The full second-quarter trade release, with June included, will confirm whether April's surge was a one-off or the start of a firmer trend. For now, after two quarters of retreat, Portugal's exporters have at least stopped the slide. On the shape of the sector itself, our report on the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos study sizing Portugal's textile and clothing industry at 11,965 companies, 118,000 jobs and 7.8 percent of national exports sets the latest reference.