Markets, Business & Tech Briefing -- Friday, March 20, 2026

ECB Holds Rates, Cuts Growth Forecast

The European Central Bank left its deposit rate at 2%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Staff projections now see eurozone growth of just 0.9% in 2026 (revised down), 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028. Inflation is forecast at 2.6% for 2026, above the 2% target, driven primarily by energy costs from the Middle East conflict.

Oil Smashes Records, Brent Above $110

Brent crude surpassed $110 per barrel after Iran-linked strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. Reuters reports that fuel cargo prices in Europe and Asia hit all-time highs. The International Energy Agency has called the conflict the "largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets." The WTO warned sustained high energy prices will hit Europe and Asia -- both net fuel importers -- hardest.

Portugal Fuel Prices: Diesel at 1.93, Petrol at 1.86 Euros/Litre

As of March 18, average diesel stood at 1.926 euros per litre and petrol at 1.856 euros. The government introduced a 10-cent professional diesel subsidy, released 10% of strategic reserves, and created a crisis mechanism allowing price interventions when wholesale electricity exceeds 180 euros per MWh.

Jeronimo Martins Reports 650M Euro Profit, Absorbs Fuel Costs

Jeronimo Martins reported 2025 net profits of nearly 650 million euros, up 7.9%. CEO Pedro Soares dos Santos said the group is absorbing fuel cost increases for now but will reassess at quarter-end. He dismissed fears of food supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict but flagged fertiliser costs as a growing concern.

Sonae Posts Record Results, Warns on Inflation Risk

Sonae reported over 6 billion euros in cumulative investment over five years, with net debt dropping 100 million euros to 1.5 billion. Food retail inflation currently sits at 3%, but president Claudia Azevedo warned a prolonged conflict could drive it higher. She called for the return of zero-VAT measures on essential foods and signalled the group may cut margins to protect consumers.

Food Basket Hits All-Time High of 254 Euros

The Deco Proteste standard grocery basket of 63 items reached 254.32 euros, its highest ever. Since January 2022, the same basket has become 66.62 euros more expensive (+35.5%). The sharpest weekly increases hit fibre cereals (+28%), sliced bread (+13%), and wholegrain cereals (+11%).

EUR/USD Under Pressure as Energy Reshapes Rate Outlook

The dollar slid from multi-month highs this week as soaring energy prices upended the global interest rate outlook. The ECB's hold was widely expected, but Lagarde's emphasis on uncertainty and the downward growth revision suggest further cuts remain off the table until the Middle East situation clarifies. European wholesale electricity prices in some markets have risen at least 12% from 2025 levels.

Portugal May Return to Deficit in 2026

Prime Minister Montenegro acknowledged Portugal could post a deficit this year due to storm recovery costs and the energy crisis, but insisted the country's recent fiscal track record -- surpluses in 2023 and 2024 -- provides a buffer. He rejected "an obsession with surpluses" that would punish the economy during an emergency.

Government Creates Energy Consumer Protections

New regulations require fixed-price energy contracts of at least one year in cities over 200,000 inhabitants. Disconnection restrictions were strengthened, with total cutoffs banned for vulnerable consumers during declared crises. Payment plan obligations were introduced for cases of non-payment.

Renewable Energy Licensing Accelerated

The Council of Ministers approved simplified licensing for renewable energy projects and designated "acceleration zones" for new installations. The structural measures are framed as a direct response to the current crisis, aimed at reducing Portugal's long-term fossil fuel dependency and boosting energy sovereignty.