Fill Up Before Sunday: Portugal Fuel Prices Set for One of the Sharpest Weekly Surges in Years

Portuguese drivers are heading into the weekend with an urgent piece of advice from the fuel industry: fill your tank before Sunday. According to forecasts from ANAREC, the National Association of Fuel Retailers, diesel and petrol prices could rise by as much as €0.10 per litre when new weekly pricing takes effect on Monday, 9 March 2026.

The cause is a dramatic surge in Brent crude, the benchmark for European fuel pricing. Brent has risen more than 17% since last Friday, crossing the $85 mark for the first time since the summer of 2024 before settling above $83. The trigger has been an escalation of tensions involving Iran, with geopolitical anxiety pushing oil markets sharply upward over a matter of days.

António Comprido, Secretary-General of EPCOL, Portugal's oil sector association, was unambiguous: the impact on pump prices is almost inevitable. Portugal's national pricing mechanism is based on average market prices from the previous week, meaning this week's crude surge feeds directly into Monday's prices. What makes the situation worse is that refined products — petrol and diesel — are rising even faster than crude oil itself, compounding the effect on consumers.

Whether the government will intervene is the open question. The Ministry of Finance has not confirmed whether it is considering reducing the ISP (Special Consumption Tax) to cushion the blow, as it has done at moments of energy stress in the past. Any such decision would need to come quickly; Monday's prices will be set based on Friday's final market figures.

For households already managing rising costs across food, housing, and services, a 10-cent jump in fuel prices is not a trivial matter. Portugal's inflation picture has been stabilising, but an energy shock of this scale — if not offset by fiscal intervention — would ripple through logistics, food distribution, and public transport operating costs in the weeks ahead.

The sector is watching carefully. If Brent retreats by Friday, the worst of the projected increase may be avoided. But as of Thursday morning, the trend remains pointed firmly upward, and prudent drivers across the country are likely to make an extra stop at the petrol station before the weekend is out.