Food Prices Hit All-Time High as Retailers Brace for Inflation Wave
The cost of a standard grocery basket in Portugal reached a record 254.32 euros this week, according to consumer watchdog Deco Proteste -- the highest figure since tracking began in January 2022. The milestone arrives as the Middle East conflict...
The cost of a standard grocery basket in Portugal reached a record 254.32 euros this week, according to consumer watchdog Deco Proteste -- the highest figure since tracking began in January 2022. The milestone arrives as the Middle East conflict drives up fuel costs, threatening to reignite the food inflation that Portuguese households had only recently seen ease.
The Numbers
The Deco Proteste basket tracks 63 essential products across Portuguese supermarkets. Since the start of 2026, consumers are paying 12.49 euros more (up 5.16%) for the same items. Compared to a year ago, the increase is 17.37 euros, or 7.33%. Since tracking began in early 2022, the same basket has become 66.62 euros more expensive -- a cumulative increase of 35.5%.
The sharpest weekly increases hit fibre cereals (up 28% to 4.73 euros), sliced bread (up 13% to 2.57 euros), and wholegrain cereals (up 11% to 4.10 euros). Year-on-year, the biggest jumps are in couve-coracao cabbage (45%), sea bass (36%), and ground roasted coffee (30%).
Since 2022, the products that have seen the most dramatic cumulative increases include stewing beef (up 121% to 12.85 euros per kilo), cabbage (87%), and eggs (84% to 2.10 euros per half-dozen).
Retailers Respond -- For Now
Portugal's two largest food retailers struck contrasting tones on Thursday as both reported annual results. Pedro Soares dos Santos, CEO of Jeronimo Martins (owner of Pingo Doce), said his group is "absorbing" the fuel cost increases for now but will reassess at the end of March. "When we close the quarter, we will have to evaluate," he said, noting that fuel is "the only impact that already has a practical effect" on operations. Jeronimo Martins reported profits of nearly 650 million euros for 2025, up 7.9%.
At Sonae, owner of Continente supermarkets, president Claudia Azevedo acknowledged that food inflation currently sits at a "controlled and relatively low" 3% in their retail operations, but warned that a prolonged conflict could change everything. "If it persists, inflationary pressure could rise," she said, pledging to "do everything to have the lowest prices on the market" and admitting the group may need to cut its own margins to absorb costs, as it did during the Ukraine war in 2022.
The IVA Zero Debate Returns
Azevedo explicitly called for the return of measures similar to those adopted during the Ukraine crisis, when the government temporarily eliminated VAT on a basket of essential foods. "Obviously we really like zero VAT on food," she said. Jeronimo Martins' Soares dos Santos was less enthusiastic, questioning whether it was "the most balanced and fair measure for those who have the least."
Prime Minister Montenegro has so far resisted calls to reintroduce the zero-VAT basket, but with food prices at record levels and the energy crisis showing no signs of abating, the political pressure to act is mounting. For the hundreds of thousands of immigrants and expats who have made Portugal home in recent years, grocery prices are one of the most immediate and tangible measures of how liveable the country remains.
