Markets, Business & Tech Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Fitch: House Prices to Rise Another 15% in 2026

Ratings agency Fitch sees no reversal in Portugal's housing price trajectory, forecasting a 15% nominal increase in 2026 after an 18% rise last year. Senior director Juan Garcia cited limited supply and strong demand from both nationals and foreigners. The Bank of Portugal's strict lending requirements and the growing share of fixed-rate mortgages provide some financial stability buffer, but affordability continues to deteriorate faster than wages can compensate.

Foreign Property Investment Hits €3.9 Billion Record

Foreign investors poured a record €3.9 billion into Portuguese real estate in 2025, up 10% on 2024, according to Bank of Portugal data. Property now accounts for 45.9% of total FDI — the highest share ever, up from 19.3% a decade ago. Luxembourg, the UK, and Germany are the top source countries. The golden visa's demise has not dampened international appetite.

Government Moves to Overhaul Rental Law

Thursday's Council of Ministers is expected to approve new rental legislation streamlining evictions for persistent non-payment while protecting vulnerable tenants. The move is the latest in a six-pillar strategy that has included revoking coercive rental powers, eliminating the 2% rent cap on new contracts, and introducing tax incentives for landlords. A new provision allowing a single heir to unlock inherited properties could release significant dormant supply.

Oil Above $100 Rattles European Markets

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, with Strait of Hormuz closure fears adding a geopolitical risk premium. For Portugal, a net energy importer, the spike threatens to reignite inflationary pressures that had been easing. European equities fell broadly, with energy-intensive sectors leading losses.

EUR/USD Under Pressure

The euro faces headwinds as energy costs rise and the ECB weighs competing pressures: slowing growth versus sticky inflation driven by oil. Markets currently price the Fed's overnight rate at 3.345% by year-end 2026, with no cuts expected before at least December 2027. The widening transatlantic rate gap may weigh on the euro in the near term.

Consumer Spending Grows More Cautious

A Consumer Choice study finds Portuguese consumers are increasingly comparing prices before purchasing, reflecting heightened budget consciousness. With food prices at record levels and energy costs climbing, discretionary spending is under pressure — a trend that could weigh on retail and hospitality sectors in coming quarters.

Construction Visa Fast-Track Expanded

Portugal has doubled its construction sector visa allocations for 2026, streamlining permits for foreign workers in a sector facing acute labour shortages. The move complements broader visa reforms, including startup incentives and mentorship programmes for immigrant entrepreneurs. The construction fast-track is designed to address the housing supply gap that underpins the affordability crisis.

Michelin Stars Boost Portugal's Gastro-Tourism Credentials

With 53 Michelin-starred restaurants after this week's guide announcement, Portugal's culinary scene is gaining serious international recognition. Porto's four new stars and the expansion into regions like Alentejo and the Douro Valley signal that gastro-tourism spending is diversifying beyond Lisbon — a positive trend for regional economies and the hospitality sector.

Moving to Portugal Show Returns to London

Strong demand from UK nationals considering relocation continues into 2026 as the Moving to Portugal Show returns to London on 26 March. The event's demographic is shifting: attendees are increasingly younger families and mid-career professionals rather than retirees, reflecting how remote work has reshaped relocation decisions. Seminars will address the new political landscape under President Seguro.

Digital Nomad and Tech Scene Update

Portugal remains a top destination for remote workers and tech professionals, with Lisbon and Porto continuing to attract international talent through competitive visa programmes and a growing startup ecosystem. The government's focus on AI infrastructure and digital transformation keeps the country positioned as a serious player in Europe's tech landscape, though rising living costs are beginning to erode Portugal's value advantage over cities like Barcelona and Berlin.