Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Slips 0.73% to 9,067 on EDP -2.02% Rotation, Brent Rebounds to $101.73, EUR/USD Tags 1.1774 on a June ECB Hike Repricing

PSI Closes at 9,067.26, Down 0.73%, on a Second Day of EDP Rotation and an Energy-Utilities Sell-Off — NOS Leads a Thin Defensive-Telco Bid as the Index Logs Its First Close Below 9,100 Since Late April

Euronext Lisbon opened on Friday, 8 May 2026 with Thursday's 9,134.30 close as the live mark and a marginal early bid that rolled cleanly over through the European session as the EDP sell-the-news rotation extended into the analyst-day round close. The PSI closed at 9,067.26 points, down 67.04 points or 0.73%, with the breadth tape running on the heavy side and the energy-and-utilities complex driving the bulk of the index points lost. The print was the index's first close below 9,100 since the post-Easter window and locks in a cumulative 2.99% drawdown from the 9,344.96 high-water mark — a clean two-session reaction-to-earnings reversal that has now wiped out almost the entire post-Iran-peace-MOU rally. EDP -2.02% stood out as the heaviest single-name loss as the Wednesday Q1-print sell-off extended through the analyst-day round; the management team's call language confirming the structural reset in Iberian wholesale electricity prices and the lower realised-price line on the EDP Renováveis-consolidated generation book locked in a €378 million Q1 headline net-profit print that was down 12% year-on-year, and the €5.2 billion EBITDA guidance lift to 2026 failed to absorb the post-print rotation into a thinner risk-budget. Teixeira Duarte -1.50%, Semapa -1.25%, Ibersol -1.17%, Navigator -0.97%, Mota-Engil -0.87% and CTT -0.86% rounded out the losers' ranks. The upside ranks were thin and rotation-led: NOS +1.25% at the top of the leaderboard on a clean defensive-telco rotation as the cross-market sized into Friday's US non-farm payrolls print and the next ECB cycle; Galp +0.90% caught a rebound bid on the Brent reversal; Jerónimo Martins +0.70% ran a tactical bounce off Thursday's 52-week low at €19.24; and EDP Renováveis +0.65% traded as the parent's renewables-leg counter-trade. BCP closed roughly flat on the day after Thursday's +1.39% AGM-approval move and the post-record-Q1-print rotation through the dividend-and-buyback news. The 0.73% Lisbon underperformance lagged the broader European tape, which held the morning's risk-on bid as the cross-market sized into the US payrolls release and the cross-asset rotation through the post-Iran-peace window extended into a third session.

Brent Rebounds to $101.73 on Supply-Disruption Concerns — EUR/USD Tags 1.1774 on a Sharp Hawkish ECB Repricing as Money Markets Price a 75% June Hike Probability

The cross-market tape on Friday ran a clean reversal of Thursday's deflationary-Iran-peace trade with Brent crude July futures rebounding back above the psychological $100 a barrel line to $101.73, up $1.67 or 1.66% on the day, as supply-disruption concerns re-asserted into the weekend response window on the US-Iran MOU. The curve has now retraced about a quarter of Thursday's $99.55 low and locks in a roughly 7% on-the-week unwind from Tuesday's $113.54 peak — a clean cross-asset re-rating that runs through to Galp's 0.90% session bid and partially reverses Thursday's 2.15% step-down. WTI June futures tracked higher in tandem on the same supply-side bid. EUR/USD tagged 1.1774, up 0.41% on the day and 0.63% on the month, on a sharp hawkish repricing of the next ECB meeting that has cleanly reversed the disinflationary-cutting-cycle path through 2025: money markets are now pricing a June rate-hike probability above 75%, a striking shift away from the consensus single-cut window that had been the dominant rates trade through the second quarter and a clean repricing of the deposit-facility-rate floor at 2.15%. The hawkish read runs cleanly through the dollar-soft side of the same risk-on tape and extends the post-1.17 EUR/USD range to a fresh seven-week-plus high. The Portugal 10-year bond yield eased 1 basis point to 3.37% on the day, down 5 basis points on the month and up 29 basis points year-on-year; the German Bund 10-year ticked higher 1bp to 3.01%, compressing the spread to 36 basis points — a tight reading that holds the IGCP refinancing tail-wind in place and continues to undercut the consensus-base widening narrative on the European periphery.

The Worx €915 Million Q1 Commercial Real-Estate Read and the Informa D&B 7.8% Insolvency Curve Frame the Lisbon Corporate-Flow Tape — EDP's Analyst-Day Round Closes Out the Earnings-Reaction Window

Outside the headline index move, two morning publications framed the Lisbon corporate-flow tape into the weekend. The Worx WOutlook Q1 2026 commercial real-estate read landed at €915 million in transaction volume — a heavy print driven by the Penha Longa hotel sale that lifted the hotelaria bucket to 39% of the quarterly book and the Arrábida Shopping ticket that pulled the retalho bucket to 37% — and runs as the dominant Lisbon-market-flow read into the next leg of the post-vistos-gold real-estate cycle. The Informa D&B Q1 insolvency curve also published this morning read +7.8% year-on-year with the construction sector leading at +28% and the textile-and-apparel book the second-heaviest mover — an uncomfortable counterpoint to the corporate-earnings-season positives and a tape that lines up cleanly with the ATP polyamide-antidumping warning published the same morning on the EU regulation that Lisbon is reading as a one-sided hit on the Portuguese textiles complex. EDP's analyst-day round closed out on Friday morning with the management team running through the 2026 guidance lift to €5.2 billion EBITDA and approximately €1.3 billion net profit, the windfall-tax exposure rebuttal, and the renewables-platform pipeline through 2030 — the call closed the door on the post-Q1 reaction window with the equity printing a clean 2.02% session loss and the cross-asset positioning rolling forward to the next macro release.

Outlook: Closed Saturday, Monday Open Tests 9,000 — BdP April Credit Print and INE April Industrial Production the Live Macro Drivers Into the Next ECB Window

Outlook: Saturday 9 May 2026 is a closed session in Lisbon — the next live tape comes on Monday's open with the weekend Iran-MOU response window running into the cross-market positioning and the 9,000 PSI line the proximate downside trade if Friday's rotation extends. The Lisbon macro calendar takes the tape into the Banco de Portugal April credit-and-deposits print due mid-month — the most-watched-domestic print after the March release that booked €4.057 billion in household lending, the first print above €4 billion in the BdP series since 2007 — and the INE April industrial-production read scheduled into the second half of next week, with the post-Q1-trade-balance widening tape and the 2026 GDP Q1 print due late next week the next leg of the macro-data cadence. On the rates side, the cross-market is now sized for a sharply hawkish June ECB meeting on the 75%-plus rate-hike probability now baked into the EUR/USD 1.1774 tape — a clean re-anchoring of the consensus path that will run through the Portugal 10-year sub-3.50% band into the next IGCP auction window and the Bund spread at 36 basis points. The earnings-season print queue runs through the next two weeks with The Navigator Company Q1 results released after Thursday's close, the BCP AGM dividend-and-buyback execution running through the May settlement window, and the EDP analyst-day round close-out as the proximate corporate-flow drivers into the back-half of May.