Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Sinks 1.43% to 9,134 on Jerónimo Martins 52-Week Low, REN Lucro Triples to €36.2M, EDP Profit Falls 12% but Lifts 2026 Guidance to €1.3B, Brent Breaks Below $100

PSI Closes at 9,134.30, Down 1.43%, on a Jerónimo Martins 52-Week Low and a Heavy Reaction-to-Earnings Sell-Off — Brent Breaks Below $100, BCP and CTT the Only Meaningful Upside as 16 Cotadas Close Red

Euronext Lisbon opened on Thursday, 7 May 2026 with Wednesday's 9,266.81 close on the live mark and a marginal +0.13% early bid that took the PSI to 9,292.98 on the open as the Jerónimo Martins and BCP Q1-print reaction queues built on the morning bid. The early tape held into the 9,315.48 intraday high before turning cleanly through the European session as Brent crude sliced below the psychological $100 a barrel line and Jerónimo Martins reversed from a +1% early bid to a -5.32% close at €19.24 — a fresh 52-week low on the cooling-margin commentary that ran through the analyst call. The PSI closed at 9,134.30 points, down 132.51 points or 1.43%, with the breadth tape reading 16 fallers, 9 risers and 6 unchanged — the heaviest single-session loss since the post-Easter window and the cleanest reversal of Wednesday's Iran-peace MOU rally. EDP Renováveis ran -3.68% to €13.87 as Wednesday's +36% Q1 profit headline gave way to a clean sell-the-news reversal and Galp took another -2.15% step down to €18.88 as the Brent reset extended into the third session. The upside ranks were thin: BCP +1.39% to €0.93 on the morning AGM approval of the €500 million dividend and the €400 million share buyback programme on top of Tuesday's record €305.8 million Q1 net-profit print; CTT +0.95% to €6.36 on the post-Q1-call recovery from Wednesday's 17.6% profit drop; Ibersol +0.33% to €12.00 rounded out the gainers. The 1.43% Lisbon underperformance contrasted sharply with the broader European tape, which held the Wednesday Iran-peace gains as the cross-market sized into Friday's US non-farm payrolls print and the next ECB meeting cycle. Outside the index, Vista Alegre Atlantis traded down 0.91% to €1.09 after Visabeira's €1.07-per-share OPA announcement landed late Wednesday, with the take-private offer pricing roughly in line with the Wednesday close and the 3,854-share early turnover signalling the limited free-float window into the CMVM review.

REN Q1 2026 Net Profit Triples to €36.2 Million, Up 150.7% on the Storm-Hit Q1 2025 Base — EBITDA Rises 11.1% on a Clean Chile Contribution, Tax Line Compresses, Regulatory Asset Base Repricing Locks 2026 Tail-Wind

REN — Redes Energéticas Nacionais reported its Q1 2026 results to the CMVM after the close on Thursday with net profit of €36.2 million, up 150.7% year-on-year from the €14.4 million Q1 2025 print that had been hit by the late-January-to-mid-February comboio de tempestades storm chain that knocked the gas and electricity transmission infrastructure into OPEX-heavy repair mode through the comparable quarter. The Rodrigo Costa-led group flagged a clean 11.1% rise in EBITDA on a stronger-than-expected contribution from the Chile transmission-and-distribution book, plus a sharply lower effective-tax line that flattered the bottom-line read into a more-than-double print. The Q1 2026 print clears the storm-hit Q1 2025 base and re-anchors the consensus 2026 trajectory above the €159.8 million 2025 full-year net profit — the regulatory-allowed-revenue tail-wind running through the RAB repricing locks the rest of the year into a structurally higher earnings range, with the Plano de Desenvolvimento e Investimento da Rede de Transporte de Eletricidade (PDIRT-E) 2026-2035 capex envelope and the RNT-Hidrogénio network feasibility studies now on the live regulatory calendar. The REN equity print of -0.53% on the morning open and a flat finish ahead of the after-market release reads as a clean position-reduction trade rather than a directional sell, with the post-close numbers now setting the Friday open on the back of the consensus-beat headline.

EDP Q1 2026 Net Profit Falls 12% to €378 Million on Lower Iberian Wholesale Prices — Management Raises 2026 Guidance by 5% to €5.2 Billion EBITDA and €1.3 Billion Net Profit, Closes the Door on Windfall-Tax Exposure

EDP reported Q1 2026 net profit of €378 million on Wednesday after the close, down 12% year-on-year from the €428 million Q1 2025 print — the variation reflects the structural reset in Iberian wholesale electricity prices through the post-Hormuz-spike normalisation and the lower realised-price line on the EDP Renováveis-consolidated generation book. The headline-down print arrived alongside an upgrade to the 2026 guidance: management lifted the full-year EBITDA target by 5% to €5.2 billion and the net-profit anchor to approximately €1.3 billion, citing the strong start to the year on the renewables-platform recovery and the favourable hydro-and-wind output through the first quarter. The call also closed the door on any Miranda Sarmento windfall-tax exposure: the team explicitly told analysts it has no lucros inesperados base to tax under the prospective 2026 mechanism the Finance Minister flagged at Monday's Concertação Social — the call language matched the 2022-base reset that had previously taken EDP outside the perimeter of the Contribuição Solidária Extraordinária, and locks in a clean exposure profile into the back-half of 2026. The market reaction on Thursday read as a sell-the-EDP-Renováveis-leg reflex with EDP Renováveis -3.68% to €13.87 on the lower realised-price tape and the Brent spillover into the European energy complex; the EDP standalone equity has not yet completed its full reaction window with the management team running the analyst-day round on Friday morning.

Brent Breaks Below $100 to $99.55, EUR/USD Holds 1.1770 — Outlook: Navigator After-Market Print Drives Friday's Open as US Non-Farm Payrolls Land Into the Iran Response Window

The cross-market tape ran the Iran-peace de-escalation trade into a third session on Thursday with Brent crude July futures slicing below the psychological $100 a barrel line to $99.55, a 1.70% session loss that takes the curve roughly 12.5% below Tuesday's $113.54 peak and locks in the cleanest oil-shock unwind of the year so far; WTI June futures fell 1.41% to $93.74; the energy complex sell-off runs cleanly through to the European downstream realisation curve and Galp's 2.15% step-down on the day. EUR/USD ticked higher into the 1.1770 handle, extending the post-1.17 range to a fresh seven-week-plus high on the dollar-soft Iran-peace tape and the European Commission Spring Forecast Wednesday read; the Banco de Portugal Relatório de Implementação da Política Monetária 2025 published on the same calendar today, with the ECB deposit-facility-rate path through 2026 sitting at 2.15% after the 2024-2025 cutting cycle and the consensus held into a single 25bps cut window through the second half. The Navigator Company's after-market Q1 2026 release is the dominant Lisbon-specific driver into Friday's open: the pulp-and-paper producer ran a flat session at €3.374 ahead of the print, and the equity is sitting on a tough comparison base after the 50% 2025 net-profit drop and the recent €115 million Aveiro tissue-machine capex line. Outlook: Friday 8 May brings US non-farm payrolls as the dominant macro tape — consensus sits around 175,000 after April's 189,000 print — alongside the EDP analyst day round and the live Navigator-print reaction; the Iran response window on the US peace MOU now extends into the weekend, with the $100 Brent line the live test of the geopolitical-risk-premium reset and the 9,100 PSI line the proximate downside trade if Thursday's rotation extends. The next macro releases on the Lisbon calendar take the tape into the Banco de Portugal April credit-and-deposits print mid-month and the INE April industrial-production read into the second half of next week.