Factory-Gate Prices in Portugal Jump 9.2 Percent in September, the Fastest Rise Since Early 2023, as Energy Costs a Third More

Prices charged by Portugal's factories, mines and power producers were 9.2 percent higher in September than a year earlier, the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE, the national statistics institute) said on Tuesday. It is the fastest annual rise since February 2023 and up from 7.1 percent in August. INE says the acceleration is explained almost entirely by energy.

In a single month, the index rose 1.5 percent, against a fall of 0.4 percent in September 2025. All of that monthly increase came from energy, whose prices rose 7.9 percent from August, mainly because of petroleum products and, to a lesser degree, electricity. The other groups added nothing to the monthly change.

What producer prices measure

The Índice de Preços na Produção Industrial (industrial production price index) tracks the prices that companies based in Portugal charge when they sell what they make, whether to other businesses here or abroad. INE collects about 10,000 prices a month from mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water firms. These are prices at the factory gate: before transport, shop margins and VAT, so they are not the prices you pay at the till.

Energy carries extra weight in the story because it is both a product and a cost. It makes up about 18 percent of the index on its own, and fuel and power also feed into the cost of almost everything else that factories make.

Energy up by a third, the rest more slowly

Energy prices were 33.6 percent higher than a year earlier, up from 22.8 percent in August, and contributed 5.5 of the 9.2 percentage points. Intermediate goods, such as materials and parts sold to other producers, rose 8.2 percent and added 2.8 points. Consumer goods rose 1.9 percent and capital goods (machinery and equipment) 1.5 percent, contributing 0.6 and 0.2 points.

Excluding energy, producer prices rose 4.4 percent, from 4.1 percent in August and 3.8 percent in July, according to INE's data tables.

The turn has been quick. A year ago, in September 2025, producer prices were 3.8 percent lower than twelve months before, and they were still falling in February 2026. The annual rate reached zero in March and has risen or held steady every month since: 3.9 percent in April, 5.1 percent in May and June, 5.8 percent in July and 7.1 percent in August. Across the third quarter, prices were 7.3 percent higher than a year earlier, against 4.7 percent in the second.

Portugal is moving with the rest of Europe. Eurostat's figures put euro-area industrial producer prices 7.3 percent higher in August than a year earlier, close to Portugal's rate that month. The euro-area figure for September is not yet out.

What it means for shop prices, and what comes next

A rise in producer prices does not pass straight through to consumers. Some of it is absorbed in margins, some goes to export customers, and what does reach shops can take months to arrive. The direct channel is energy: fuel was the main reason consumer inflation rose to 3.6 percent in September, with consumer energy prices 15.3 percent higher than a year earlier in INE's final figures. Core inflation, which strips out energy and unprocessed food, was 2.7 percent.

The 4.4 percent rise outside energy is the figure to watch, because that is where higher input costs would show up in goods such as food and household products. The pressure comes as factory output is weakening: industrial production fell 3.8 percent in August.

INE publishes its flash estimate of October consumer inflation on 30 October and the final figures on 11 November. The October producer price index follows on 18 November.