Eighty-Three of the North's Eighty-Six Councils Drew In More People Than They Lost, and the Region Added 187,191 Residents in Four Years

The north of Portugal spent most of the last fifteen years losing people. Between 2011 and 2015 the region shed 78,080 residents, a fall of 2.1 percent, and the six years that followed barely moved the needle: it closed 2021 with 3,603,363 inhabitants, fractionally fewer than it had in 2015. A bulletin published on Tuesday by the Comissão de Coordenação e Desenvolvimento Regional do Norte (North Regional Coordination and Development Commission, or CCDR-N) puts what has happened since on a wholly different footing. Between 2021 and 2025 the region gained 187,191 residents, a rise of 5.2 percent, ending the period at 3,790,554.

The bulletin, the summer 2026 edition of the commission's Norte Estrutura series, calls this "not merely a continuation of the earlier trajectory, but an effective change in the regional demographic pattern". It rests on figures from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (National Statistics Institute, or INE), including the revised population estimates released on 22 June, which moved to a method built on administrative records and counted foreign residents more completely than before.

Arrivals did the work, and births did not

The arithmetic is not subtle. Over those four years the north recorded a net migration balance of 235,170 people while its natural balance, births minus deaths, stayed negative at 48,000. Strip the migration out and the region would have carried on shrinking.

Even so, the north drew a smaller share of the national inflow than its size would suggest: a cumulative migration growth rate of 6.4 percent across 2011 to 2025, against 12.0 percent for Portugal as a whole.

Every sub-region grew, for the first time

All eight of the region's NUTS III sub-regions gained population between 2021 and 2025, which the commission says has not happened before. Cávado led at 7.8 percent, followed by Alto Minho at 5.9, the Área Metropolitana do Porto (Porto Metropolitan Area) at 5.6 and Ave at 5.3. The three that had been emptying fastest all turned positive: Terras de Trás-os-Montes at 2.2 percent, Douro at 2.1 and Alto Tâmega e Barroso at 1.8.

At council level the shift is starker. Only 31 of the north's 86 municipalities grew across 2011 to 2025; 63 grew in the last four years alone. On migration the figure is 83 of 86, leaving three councils with small negative balances. The highest migration growth rates went to Valença at 14.9 percent, Porto at 12.7, Vila Nova de Cerveira at 11.8, Bragança at 10.9 and Póvoa de Varzim at 9.9. In raw numbers the flows still concentrated: Porto took roughly 33,500 people, Vila Nova de Gaia 19,100, Braga 16,400, and Matosinhos and Vila Nova de Famalicão about 9,400 each.

Older anyway

None of this reversed the ageing. Between 2011 and 2025 the share of northern residents under 15 fell from 15.0 to 11.8 percent while the share aged 65 or over climbed from 17.2 to 24.0 percent. Nationally every age band grew over the last four years, including the under-15s. In the north only the 25 to 64 and 65-plus bands did; the under-15s slipped 0.6 percent and the 15 to 24 band 0.2 percent.

The ageing index rose in all 86 municipalities, with no exceptions. Vinhais, Vimioso, Torre de Moncorvo, Montalegre and Melgaço now count more than five residents aged 65 or over for every child under 15.

Álvaro Santos, who chairs the commission, said the figures show the north "has entered a new demographic cycle" and point to "a more attractive region, capable of generating opportunities, creating jobs and retaining population". The bulletin is blunter about the low-density interior, where positive migration balances often still fail to offset the deaths an old population produces.