Depression Charles Lands on Indexed Electricity Bills This Month, and ERSE's Two-Year Tariff Lag Lets the Rest Reach Every Household in 2028

Depression Charles will reach household electricity bills twice. Families on contracts indexed to the wholesale market pay for it this month; everyone else is likely to meet part of it in 2028, when the energy regulator's tariff adjustments catch up with this year's costs. That is the reading in ECO's analysis published on Thursday, which says expensive gas and dams holding back water to refill have turned the storm into a spell of dear electricity.

The storm itself, and the incidents it caused, were covered in our report on Charles leaving the mainland. This piece is about the bill.

Now: indexed contracts feel it at once

An indexed contract passes the wholesale price through to the customer more or less as it moves. ECO calculates that a family on such a contract will pay 933 percent more for the energy it uses this week than in the week of Storm Kristin in January. For a couple with two children on typical consumption, it puts the energy cost at about 17 euros for the week, against 1.70 euros in late January, and at about 74 euros against 7 euros if prices stay at this level all month. Those figures cover energy only, not grid charges or taxes.

Later: the two-year tariff lag

The second wave works through the tarifas de Acesso às Redes (network access tariffs), which the regulator ERSE sets each year and which, it says, form part of the bill of every consumer, on the regulated tariff or the free market alike. ERSE's model corrects these tariffs up to two years later, once audited accounts show what the regulated companies actually billed and spent: the 2026 tariffs, for example, carry the adjustments for 2024. On that timetable, costs that 2026 runs above forecast are settled in the 2028 tariffs.

Part of the cost of keeping the grid stable is already moving onto those tariffs. On 14 October ERSE approved shifting 40 percent of the charges for resolving technical restrictions (paying gas plants to run when the grid needs them) into the Uso Global do Sistema charge, starting with 25 percent from the last quarter of 2026. When it opened that consultation in July, ERSE tied the rise in these costs partly to the severe damage Storm Kristin did to the networks in January.

What it means for you

• On an indexed free-market contract: expect a noticeably higher bill for November. Check your contract's terms and compare offers on ERSE's price simulator.
• On a fixed-price free-market contract: nothing changes at once, but ERSE notes that each supplier buys its own power and sets its own prices, so watch for notices of new terms.
• On the regulated tariff (about 780,000 customers): prices do not follow the daily market. ERSE reviews the energy price every quarter and moves it by 0.005 euros per kWh only when purchase costs drift 0.010 euros from forecast; it did so from 1 October, adding about 2.7 percent to the average bill.
• Everyone, in January 2027: ERSE's 2027 proposal cuts network access tariffs for households by 13.7 percent and lifts regulated prices by 1.5 percent. The final decision is due by 15 December.

Whether the free market has served households better is another question: ERSE's own figures suggest free-market customers have paid more than regulated ones since mid-2023.