DBRS Could Lift Portugal Into the AA Band on Friday, Six Months After Turning Its Outlook Positive

Morningstar DBRS, the Canadian credit rating agency, has Portugal on its calendar for a possible rating action today, Friday 13 November. It is the agency's third and final scheduled review of the Portuguese Republic this year, after 16 January and 15 May, Jornal de Negócios reports. The interest is in the direction: in May DBRS kept Portugal at A (high) but turned its outlook from stable to positive, which signals that an upgrade is on the table.

Where Portugal stands

A (high) sits one step below the AA band on the DBRS scale. When DBRS last reviewed Portugal on 15 May, it said the change to a positive trend reflected its expectation that the ratio of public debt to GDP is "well positioned to keep falling to significantly lower levels in the medium term", backed by prudent budget management and favourable growth, according to Lusa via RTP. It also warned that keeping budget surpluses would get harder without new measures, as spending pressure grows from an ageing population and defence commitments.

DBRS last moved the rating itself in January 2025, when it raised Portugal to A (high), ECO reported in May. In that May note the agency pointed to a third consecutive budget surplus in 2025, of 0.7 percent of GDP, and to public debt falling below 90 percent of GDP for the first time since 2009.

The other four agencies, as listed by the IGCP (the State's debt management agency) in its October 2026 investor presentation, rate Portugal as follows:

• S&P: A+, positive outlook
• Fitch: A+, stable outlook
• Scope: A+, stable outlook
• Moody's: A3, stable outlook

The IGCP puts public debt at 89.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2025, down 44.9 points from the 2020 peak. The Banco de Portugal has since put it at 88.4 percent at the end of September.

What it means for you

A sovereign rating is an agency's opinion of how likely a government is to repay its debt. A higher grade can widen the pool of investors willing to buy Portuguese bonds and can help keep the State's borrowing costs down. That matters to taxpayers: the State paid 3.897 percent to borrow over ten years at its October auction, its costliest ten-year sale since at least 2014, and every euro of interest is a euro not spent elsewhere in the budget.

For households with a mortgage the link is weaker. Variable-rate home loans in Portugal follow Euribor, a euro-area interbank rate that a Portuguese rating does not set, so a change in the rating today would not change monthly payments directly.

Negócios describes today's date as a possible rating action, so DBRS may confirm the rating and trend rather than change them. The Brief will report the outcome once the agency publishes it.