Markets, Business & Tech Briefing — Thursday, 5 March 2026

Markets

PSI-20 at multi-year high. The Portuguese stock index has reached 9,173 points, the highest level since June 2008, with gains of 6.94% over the past four weeks and 34.51% over the past twelve months. Broad European optimism and strong corporate earnings from Portuguese heavyweights have driven the rally.

Brent crude surges above $83. The international oil benchmark has risen more than 17% since last Friday on Iran-related geopolitical anxiety, crossing $85 briefly before stabilising. The effect on Portuguese pump prices is expected to be direct and significant from Monday 9 March, with refined product prices rising even faster than crude itself.

EUR watch. The euro continues to trade in a cautious range as European markets weigh Middle East tensions against resilient eurozone economic data. Energy-importing economies including Portugal face renewed inflationary pressure if crude remains elevated.

Property and Tax

House prices at €2,111/m². Portuguese residential property reached a record average of €2,111 per square metre in Q3 2025, representing 16% year-on-year growth. Demand remains strongest in Lisbon, the Algarve, and emerging secondary markets. Analysts forecast continued price growth of 6–8% annually through 2026, supported by limited new supply and persistent demand from both domestic and international buyers.

Rent increase cap set at 2.24% for 2026. The government's annual rent increase limit, calculated from CPI inflation data under the NRAU framework, has been set at 2.24% for existing contracts this year — marginally up from 2.16% in 2025. Landlords cannot apply increases above this ceiling on protected tenancy agreements.

AIMA fee hike effective from 1 March. Residence permit and regularisation fees have risen by up to 33%, adding upfront costs for foreign nationals pursuing legal status. The new fees have implications for property transactions that depend on buyer residency status being in order.

Business and Deals

Agri-food sector flags structural risk. Industry federation FIPA has called on government for urgent action after exports fell 4.5% in 2025 to €7.8 billion — the first annual decline in a decade. The federation is seeking VAT reform on certain food products, lower energy costs, and more aggressive promotion of Portuguese brands internationally through AICEP. Volume growth in olive oil (up 10%) masked the revenue decline driven by global price correction.

Portugal-Mercosur trade agency adaptation underway. Portuguese business and export agencies are working to align operations with the EU-Mercosur trade agreement framework, positioning Portuguese exporters to benefit from expanded access to South American markets. Agriculture, wine, and machinery sectors are seen as primary beneficiaries.

CP secures €746M for new train fleet. Comboios de Portugal's strategic investment in 117 new trains is the largest fleet renewal in the company's recent history, with delivery expected to complete by 2033. The purchase is a prerequisite for high-speed rail operations and signals long-term state commitment to rail infrastructure despite ongoing fiscal pressures.

Tech and Digital

Portugal climbing European digital rankings. Portugal has consolidated its position on the European Digital Economy and Society Index, with analysts noting particular progress in digital public services, e-government adoption, and broadband connectivity. AIMA's shift to a fully digital application platform for immigration processes is cited as a concrete example of public sector transformation.

Lisbon and Porto tech ecosystems expanding. Multinational technology companies continue to establish or expand operations in Portugal's two largest cities. Competitive labour costs relative to Western European peers, a growing pool of English-speaking engineering talent, and reliable EU regulatory frameworks are recurring factors cited in location decisions. Digital nomad communities remain a strong presence, particularly in Lisbon, Madeira, and the Algarve.

SME digital adoption accelerating. Portugal's small and medium enterprises are increasing adoption of digital tools across document management, export logistics, and customer relationship management, supported by EU structural fund programmes targeted at SME digitalisation through 2027.