Certificados de Aforro Hit Their Highest Rate in Ten Months as Middle East Tensions Push Euribor Up

Portugal's most popular government savings product is about to get more attractive. Certificados de Aforro subscribed in April will pay a base interest rate of 2.138 percent, up 12.6 basis points from March's 2.012 percent. It is the highest rate since May 2025 and the largest single-month increase in more than two years, according to calculations published by ECO and confirmed by Público.

The jump is modest in absolute terms but notable for its cause: the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has pushed three-month Euribor rates higher, and Certificados de Aforro are pegged directly to that benchmark.

How the Rate Is Set

The Series F Certificados de Aforro — the only series currently on sale, launched in June 2023 — calculate their base rate using the arithmetic mean of three-month Euribor values over the ten business days before the third-to-last working day of each month. The result is capped at 2.5 percent and floored at zero.

During the ten-day calculation window for April, three-month Euribor held consistently above 2.1 percent, something that had not happened since mid-May 2025. The sustained elevation, rather than a one-day spike, is what produced the larger-than-usual jump.

On top of the base rate, holders earn permanence premiums that increase with time: 0.25 percent from years two through five, 0.50 percent from years six through nine, and up to 1.75 percent in the final years. Interest is capitalised quarterly, net of tax, and early redemption is permitted from the first interest payment date.

Why Euribor Is Rising

The European Central Bank has been on a cutting path since June 2024, lowering its main refinancing rate from 4.5 percent to 2.65 percent. But markets price expectations, not current policy. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East — particularly the widening of hostilities involving Iran and Saudi Arabia — has raised inflation expectations in Europe through energy price channels.

Three-month Euribor, which tracks where banks expect ECB rates to be in the near term, has responded by flattening its decline. After falling steadily through late 2025, it has stabilised above 2.1 percent since late February, with futures markets now pricing fewer rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 than they did in January.

For mortgage holders, this is unwelcome news — variable-rate loans indexed to Euribor will see their payments stabilise rather than continue falling. But for savers, the same dynamic works in reverse.

How Certificados de Aforro Compare to Bank Deposits

The gap between Certificados de Aforro and traditional bank deposits continues to widen. In January 2026, the average rate on new fixed-term deposits in Portugal was just 1.34 percent, according to the Bank of Portugal. That is 80 basis points below the new Certificados de Aforro base rate — and the gap grows further once permanence premiums are factored in.

Portuguese banks have been notoriously slow to pass on ECB rate increases to depositors, a pattern that has drawn criticism from consumer groups and even the Bank of Portugal itself. While deposit rates have edged down as ECB cuts, Certificados de Aforro rates have been more responsive to actual market conditions because they are mechanically linked to Euribor rather than set at banks' discretion.

What Expats and Foreign Residents Need to Know

Certificados de Aforro are available to anyone with a Portuguese tax number (NIF) and a bank account in Portugal. There is no citizenship or residency requirement — non-residents with a Portuguese NIF can subscribe. The minimum investment is 100 euros, and each person can hold up to 50,000 euros in the current Series F (reduced from the earlier limit).

Subscriptions are made through CTT post offices (Correios de Portugal) or through the AforroNet online platform. The process requires an initial in-person visit to CTT with your NIF, identification document, and Portuguese bank details. After setup, subsequent subscriptions can be made online.

For expats weighing their options, the key advantages are the government guarantee (these are sovereign debt instruments backed by the Portuguese Republic), the automatic quarterly compounding, and the liquidity — you can redeem after the first quarter without penalty. The main disadvantage is the 28 percent flat tax on interest income, which applies to both residents and non-residents (though double taxation treaties may reduce the effective rate for some nationalities).

The Popularity Is Not Slowing Down

Despite falling base rates through late 2025, Portuguese households continued to pour money into Certificados de Aforro. Net subscriptions in February 2026 reached 291.2 million euros — the seventeenth consecutive month of positive inflows. The total stock now stands at nearly 41 billion euros, a remarkable figure for a country with a GDP of around 280 billion.

The sustained popularity reflects a structural shift in Portuguese savings behaviour. Before 2022, when rates were near zero, Certificados de Aforro were a niche product. The ECB's aggressive tightening cycle turned them into a mainstream alternative to deposits, and the habit has stuck even as rates moderated. With April's rate rise, the product's appeal may strengthen further — particularly if geopolitical tensions keep Euribor elevated.

For freelancers and expats building an emergency fund in Portugal, the message is straightforward: government savings bonds are currently paying 60 percent more than the average bank deposit, with better liquidity and a sovereign guarantee. The April rate rise makes the case even harder to argue with.

Sources: ECO (Mar 26), Público (Mar 26), Expresso (Mar 26), Bank of Portugal deposit rate data (Jan 2026)

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