Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Reverses 1.26% to 9,050 on European Red Tide, EDP Renováveis -4.29% Tops Loser Tape, Altri Sets €0.25 Dividend Ex-Day 26 May, Bund Spread Holds 39bps Into Wednesday's IGCP €1.5Bn Auction

PSI Snaps Monday's Rebound, Closes Down 1.26% at 9,050 — European Red Tide Imports a Hawkish-Fed-and-Iran-Tension Repricing, Intraday Low at 9,042 Tests the 9,000 Floor Into Wednesday's IGCP Auction

The PSI closed Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 9,050.18 points, down 115.58 points or 1.26% on the session, the index unwinding the entire +1.09% rebound printed on Monday and stretching the cumulative drawdown off the 30 April 9,344.96 high back out to 3.16%. The intraday range ran from 9,158.87 at the open through a low of 9,042.34 on the lunch-time print, the 9,000 floor that bank desks have been carrying as the next downside test now sitting roughly 0.5% below the close. The tape ran red across every major European bourse on the back of a hawkish-Fed-and-Iran-tension repricing imported overnight from Asia: the Kospi printed a roughly $300 billion drawdown in market capitalisation inside two hours into its close, the Hang Seng shed 2.4%, the DAX opened down 1.1% and held the morning low into the European afternoon, and the CAC 40 traced a near-identical pattern. The Portuguese-specific overlay ran on the EDP-and-renewables-complex read-through (the parent-level €335 million AT dispute filtered into the renewables subsidiary on continued Q1-margin and offshore-wind-pipeline scrutiny) and the NOS Q1 disappointment that pushed the equity to the loser-list and pulled the broader-tech-and-telecom beta with it. Twelve of the fifteen PSI constituents closed in the red against three gainers — Galp Energia the standout up 1.68% on the Brent rebound, CTT — Correios de Portugal up 1.18% on the DHL Iberian Parcels joint-venture closing print, and Sonae SGPS flat into the back end of the Q1-corporate-flow cluster. BCP traded a clean two-way print against the hawkish-ECB tail-wind that has anchored the bank-beta consensus through the second quarter — the rate-hike probability held above 75% on the deposit-facility floor — and closed marginally lower as the EU-wide-banking-rotation gave back. The session also booked an IGCP BT tender announcement at the open: the agency confirmed the 3-month and 12-month Treasury-bills auction calendar into the back end of next week, the announcement running ahead of the larger OT auction on Wednesday's calendar.

EDP Renováveis -4.29% Tops the Loser Tape on the EDP €335M AT Dispute Sympathy and the Q1 Net-Debt Expansion Readback — 74.98% Parent Stake Pulls the Renewables Beta Lower Into the European Offshore-Wind Pipeline Repricing

The single-name corporate-flow standout of the Tuesday tape is EDP Renováveis down 4.29% — the renewables subsidiary giving back the equivalent of more than a full year of dividend yield on a single session as the cross-market tape ran a sympathy unwind off the parent EDP — Energias de Portugal's Monday disclosure of the €335 million Imposto-do-Selo and IRC reassessment from the Autoridade Tributária on the 2020 Douro hydroelectric portfolio sale to the Engie-led consortium. The structural read on the EDPR move runs across two discrete inputs: the parent EDP holds roughly 74.98% of the EDPR cap table, so any contingent-liability print at the parent level mechanically flows through into the consolidated-group risk perception; and the renewables subsidiary's own Q1 2026 tape ran a continued net-debt expansion read against the European offshore-wind pipeline pricing — the consensus on the EDPR-MidCo debt-service ratio has been re-tested every session through the post-earnings drawdown that the parent's 12% Q1 net-profit drop to €378 million printed on the Wednesday tape. The Tuesday session also booked the cross-read into the broader European renewables complex: Iberdrola shed 2.6% on the parallel offshore-wind-and-hydro tape, Ørsted dropped 3.4% on the back of the UK AR7 auction-pricing softness that the consensus has been digesting through the week, and Vestas Wind Systems traded a near-identical down-print on the OEM-margin compression. Read-through to the EDPR equity on the timeline: the 1.62-billion-euro first-quarter net-debt addition is the concrete number consensus needs to size into the second half, and the parent-level AT contingent liability runs the multi-year arbitration timeline that keeps the discrete event-risk overlay live on the EDPR name through to the Q4 2026 consolidated print.

Altri Locks the €0.25-Per-Share Dividend Ex-Day on Tuesday 26 May, Payment 28 May — Cluster Anchors the Front End of the May Calendar Against the Friday Q1 Print and the BCSD Pulp-Margin Macro Tape

The discrete primary-tape print of the Tuesday session is the Altri Annual-General-Meeting-approved ordinary 2025 dividend: the company confirmed the €0.25 per share distribution from retained earnings for payment on Thursday 28 May, with the ex-day on Tuesday 26 May and the record date on Wednesday 27 May. The dividend lands inside the front end of the May corporate-distribution calendar — the EDP ex-day already cleared on 1 May, the Sonae, Galp and Jerónimo Martins distribution windows have been booked through the prior month, and the Altri print closes the back-end of the cotada-dividend cycle ahead of the lower-frequency holding-company prints. The €0.25 per share figure represents an unchanged distribution against the 2024 ordinary print and books a payout ratio of roughly 26% against the €198 million 2025 net result that the company reported in March. The Altri-dividend confirmation runs alongside the Friday 16 May Q1 2026 earnings print on the company's calendar — the BCSD-pulp-margin tape that the European cellulose-and-paper segment has been digesting through the first quarter has the consensus for a roughly 20% Q1 EBITDA contraction year-on-year on the back of the BHKP-pulp-price softness that ran the Hawkins Wright reference index roughly 11% lower across the quarter. Read-through to the broader Semapa-and-Navigator complex: Tuesday's Semapa -4.19% print runs in the same family-of-trade — the holding-company-discount-trade that the post-Q1-tape softness pushes wider across the cellulose-and-paper segment, and the Navigator's own Friday Q1 print is the next datapoint on the cluster.

Mota-Engil -2.87% Books the Defensive Positioning Print Into Wednesday's Q1 2026 Earnings — €16.2Bn Order Book and €113.5M Linha do Minho Award Anchor the African-Concession-Mix Sub-Debate

The third corporate-flow read of the Tuesday tape is Mota-Engil giving back 2.87% on a defensive-positioning print into Wednesday's Q1 2026 earnings, the equity unwinding the post-Linha do Minho-award rally that ran the stock into the morning open. The construction-and-concessions group prints Q1 results into Wednesday's heavy calendar with three discrete inputs the consensus needs to size: the €113.5 million Linha do Minho award fed into the €16.2 billion order-book preview that the company communicated through the weekend; the African-concessions-mix readback after the 2025 Mozambican and Angolan portfolios ran a tightening-margin print across the calendar fourth quarter; and the Latin American segment that has been the medium-term growth engine on the back of the Mexican and Peruvian infrastructure pipelines. The post-Q1 readback on the African-concessions mix is the sub-debate consensus needs to size into the second half — the BCSD CEO Council has flagged the Mozambican revenue line as the most discrete swing-factor on the consolidated-group EBITDA bridge through 2026, and the consensus on the Angolan contract-renewal calendar has been compressed into a single-quarter visibility window after the soft Q4 2025 print. Read-through to the European-construction complex: the post-Q1 FCC, ACS and Sacyr tapes have all run a similar tightening-margin print across the calendar Q1 — the macro-pressure on the raw-materials input cost lapping the post-Q1-2025 reset on copper and aluminium has been the most-watched consensus-input through the cycle, and Mota-Engil's Wednesday morning print is the live datapoint that anchors the cross-Iberian read for the second half.

Cross-Market Into Wednesday's Open: Portugal 10-Year +7.8bps to 3.49%, Bund Spread Holds 39bps, EUR/USD Pulls Back to 1.1738 — Hawkish-ECB Repricing Stretches Into the IGCP €1.5Bn Auction

The cross-market tape closed Tuesday on a continued-tightening posture into Wednesday's IGCP auction. The Portugal 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro yield closed at 3.49%, up 7.8 basis points on the day — the third consecutive session of upward repricing on the back of the hawkish-ECB-and-Fed-readthrough tape — taking the curve 1.5 basis points lower on the month and 30.9 basis points higher year-on-year. The Bund 10-year compressed marginally to 3.10%, up 0.4 basis points on the session, holding the Portugal-Bund spread at roughly 39 basis points against Monday's 40 basis points — the spread now sits inside the tight end of the year-to-date range and reflects the consensus pricing of the post-S&P A-flat-with-positive-outlook credit-rating tape and the IGCP's 91% pre-funded position on the 2026 issuance plan. The EUR/USD closed at 1.1738 on the ECB reference fix, down 0.40% from Monday's 1.1785 print as the three-week-high above 1.175 unwinds on the back of the dollar bid into the hawkish-Fed repricing — the cumulative push over the prior month sits at roughly 0.20% against the 1.1721 11-April print. Money markets continue to price the next ECB meeting on a hawkish bias: the implied June 2026 rate-hike probability sits at 75%-plus on the deposit-facility floor at 2.15%, and the marginal-probability mass on a September follow-up now reads roughly 40% against the 30% base-case from the start of the month. Brent crude July futures sat at $102.18 a barrel into the European close, up $0.36 on Monday's $101.82 print on the back of the geopolitical-risk-premium repricing into the Iran-tension tape. The IGCP €1.5 billion OT auction on Wednesday 13 May across the 4-year October 2030 line and the 10-year June 2036 tap is the live primary-market test for the post-hawkish-ECB tape; the bid-to-cover at the 8 April auction printed 2.46x across a similar perimeter, and the April syndication on the new June 2036 line cleared at 3.05% — Wednesday's tap on the same line therefore prints into a 40-plus-basis-point repricing against the syndication clearing yield.

Outlook: Wednesday Is the Heavy Day — IGCP €1.5Bn OT Auction, Mota-Engil Q1, TAP-Azul Defence Deadline and BdP April Credit All on the Same Tape, Altri-Navigator Print Books the Friday Cellulose Cluster

Outlook: Wednesday 13 May 2026 is the heavy session across the week. The day opens with the IGCP €1.5 billion OT auction at 10:30 — the agency taps the 4-year October 2030 line and the 10-year June 2036 in two tranches against the post-hawkish-ECB tape that has run rates higher every session this week; the Mota-Engil Q1 2026 earnings land at the open against the €16.2 billion order-book preview and the €113.5 million Linha do Minho award; the TAP — Transportes Aéreos Portugueses defence-filing deadline closes in the Tribunal de Lisboa on the Azul Linhas Aéreas Brasileiras €189 million joint-and-several action; and the BdP April credit-and-deposits release lands mid-day, the most-watched-domestic print after the March release that booked €4.057 billion in household lending — the first print above €4 billion in the BdP series since 2007. Thursday 14 May brings the INE labour-cost index for Q1 and the Sonae SGPS Q1 print pre-market against the NOS AGM at the same opening hour. Friday 16 May rounds the corporate-flow cluster with Altri, Navigator and Semapa Q1 prints back-to-back at the open — the cellulose-and-paper-segment cluster that the BCSD CEO Council has flagged as the most-watched margin-compression test across the H1 calendar — and the Brussels Spring 2026 forecast for Portugal drops on Wednesday 21 May as the next material macro datapoint after the EC Spring 2025 baseline read of 2.2% GDP, 0.3% deficit and 2.0% inflation. The Trabalho XXI labour package walks into the Assembleia da República unsigned by the social partners on the close of the nine-month round, with the CGTP 3 June general strike locked into the same window — the labour-package print remains a live medium-term catalyst on the consumer-and-services equity beta through the third quarter. Across the macro front, the EC Spring 2026 forecast on Wednesday 21 May is the next material datapoint after the S&P A-flat-with-positive-outlook rating action and the IMF Article IV mission concluded earlier in the month.