Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Holds 9,164 on EDP Ex-Div Day, NOS/BCP/Corticeira Lead Counter-Bid, OT Yields Drop 3bps Into the Q1 Earnings Wave

PSI Closes Tuesday at 9,164.62, Down 0.04%, on a Clean EDP Ex-Div Rebalance — NOS, BCP and Corticeira Amorim Carry the Counter-Trend Bid

Euronext Lisbon's regulated cash market opened on Tuesday, 5 May 2026 with Monday's 9,168.05 close and the EDP ex-dividend overhang both on the live mark. The morning ran a brisk recovery bid that took the PSI to an intraday high of 9,269.45 — a 1.10% rally that closed about a third of Monday's 1.89% drawdown — before the EDP mechanical adjustment kicked in on the €0.20 ex-dividend pricing and the index slid back through the European afternoon to a session low of 9,112.83 and a final close at 9,164.62 points. The day's 3.43-point decline of 0.04% understates the tape: the EDP ex-div alone removed roughly 110 basis points of capitalised weight from the headline number, so the underlying breadth read is materially better than the close suggests. The index now sits about 1.94% below Thursday's pre-holiday 9,344.96 hold-over and roughly 40 basis points below the pre-BPCE-deal level, but the 16-year-high register stays on the calendar and the round-number 10,000 line is back to a multi-week trade. Cash equity turnover ran at an estimated €135 million, modestly above the 30-day rolling average of €110 million on a balanced two-way flow rather than the one-direction pile-on of Monday's tape. EDP shed 4.38% on the ex-dividend pricing for the 2025 final — record date today, payment 8 May, with the holders-of-record list locked at the close — and the move is structural rather than directional, with the family group's combined PSI weight close to 30% meaning the headline index always carries an outsized ex-div drag on EDP record dates. Ibersol retraced 1.48% after Monday's +1.50% defensive bid, with the consumer-services group giving back the holiday-thin trade as the cyclical names re-took the tape; Altri ticked -0.20% off Monday's modest gain on a similar pulp-and-paper retracement. The counter-trend bid was led by Corticeira Amorim at +3.44% as the Mozelos-headquartered cork group caught the German auto-supplier read-through into Wednesday's stoppers-and-flooring volume guide; NOS bounced 1.93% on the mid-week capex and Q1-prep tape ahead of EDP Renováveis's Wednesday print and the broader telecom-tower cycle into Q2; BCP recovered 1.80% in the cleanest reversal-of-Monday's-sell-the-news trade of the session, with the BCP Q1 print on Wednesday now framed by the Polish Bank Millennium +68% beat already on the tape and the Portuguese standalone book read into the BdP-tightened mortgage supervisory regime. Galp, Jerónimo Martins, Sonae, Navigator, REN and Mota-Engil traded mixed inside ±0.5%, with the index breadth running roughly two-thirds of issues higher and the close-to-close drag concentrated in the EDP family.

OT 10-Year Yield Drops 3.1 Basis Points to 3.469%, OT-Bund Spread Tightens to ~40bps; EUR/USD Ticks Up to 1.1704 as Brent Rolls Back From $114

Portugal's 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro yield closed Tuesday's session at 3.469%, down 3.1 basis points from Monday's 3.500% close, with the move tracking the broader Bund-led duration bid as the Middle East risk premium stopped widening. The 52-week range on the OT now spans 2.925% to 3.634%, so today's print sits modestly inside the upper third of the 12-month channel and roughly 16 basis points below the recent high. The German 10-year Bund closed about 2 basis points lower on the day, leaving the OT-Bund spread at roughly 40 basis points — about two basis points tighter than Monday's wider close, well inside the 60bps level last seen in early 2024 and consistent with the IGCP's strong primary-market reception this spring. The IGCP holds no auction on Wednesday's 7 May calendar slot, leaving the next syndicated tap window open into mid-May. EUR/USD ticked 0.10% higher to 1.1704 on a session range of 1.1690 to 1.1735 — the post-1.17 figure now holds as the live test of the post-2022 dollar-weakness range, with a 52-week range of 1.1065 to 1.2079. Brent crude rolled back to $113.54 a barrel on Tuesday morning after Monday's $114 intraday spike, with the Strait of Hormuz fire-exchange between US Navy escorts and Iranian Revolutionary Guard small craft on the freshest end of the curve and Brent up roughly 54% from the start of the Iran-war cycle. The downstream-margin tailwind stays alive for Galp on the refining side, with the curve in modest backwardation and the consumer hit running through the Portaria 204-B/2026 ISP-discount adjustment that locks in this week's €1.993/L gasolina and €2.055/L gasóleo simples pump prices. Friday's US non-farm payrolls stays the dominant cross-market duration driver into the next ECB meeting cycle, with the European Commission Spring Forecast Wednesday morning the next Portugal-specific print on the calendar.

Galp's Eight-Year ANP File Closes — Berbigão at 6.45%, Sururu at 9.497% of BM-S-11A — Crystallising the Pre-Salt Working-Interest Stack Into Q1

The cross-Atlantic file that has been open since the December 2018 Petrobras-led submission cleared Brasília's Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis on Tuesday: Galp Energia's long-pending Berbigão and Sururu unitization agreements were approved eight years after submission, settling the Portuguese producer's working-interest stake at 6.45% in Berbigão and 9.497% in Sururu of the pre-salt block BM-S-11A that has been pumping since 2019. The unitization captures the migration-of-hydrocarbons accounting — the technical recognition that the producing reservoir crosses the BM-S-11A boundary into adjacent unlicensed acreage and the production has to be re-allocated proportionally to the cross-boundary working-interest stack — and the now-final percentages crystallise the six-year run of provisional accounting into the consolidated Q1 print due in the second half of May. The deal locks Galp's Brazilian E&P book into the BM-S-11A pre-salt cluster (Iara, Berbigão, Sururu, Atapu) at the Petrobras-operated hub level, with Shell, Petrogal Brasil (Galp's local vehicle) and Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A. on the rest of the cap table; the unitization removes the audit-and-litigation overhang that has hung over the 2019-2025 production reconciliation and clears the Galp board to put a number on the cumulative production-sharing adjustment in Q1. The headline read for Lisbon-listed Galp shareholders is the elimination of one of the largest unresolved estimation-uncertainty lines in the upstream segment's accounting; the second-order read is the supportive Q1 cash-flow signal into the Moeve Spanish-iberian downstream-merger file that ran through last week's tape.

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Car Market Expands 14.4% in April 2026 to 24,969 Units — Peugeot Holds the Lead, Tesla April Volume Falls 32.8% to 203 Cars on the Musk-Brand Drag and the Cooling Incentive Cycle

Portugal's new light passenger and commercial vehicle market registered 24,969 units in April 2026, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year and a clean acceleration from the March print, according to the ACAP monthly read released this afternoon. Peugeot held both the month and the year-to-date lead, with the Stellantis brand running roughly two model lines deep in the top-five ranking and the e-208 holding the EV-segment top slot; Mercedes-Benz held second on a clean Stuttgart-and-Sindelfingen import mix that is still running through the Trump-tariff-overhang trade. The headline outlier was Tesla: April volume in Portugal fell 32.8% year-on-year to 203 cars, the lowest monthly print since 2022, with the Musk-brand reputational drag — a multi-month European pattern now showing up in the Portuguese registry — combining with the cooling Fundo Ambiental EV-incentive cycle and the pre-launch refresh of the Model Y stack. The Fundo Ambiental's new €20 million 2026 round opens in May or June with €4,000-€5,000 per light passenger car and a €1,500 bicycle cap; today's release reads as the buyer-side hesitation signal ahead of that incentive window opening. The total market's 14.4% expansion lands inside a broader 5.6 million-overnight-stay tourism print and a 3.5% electricity-consumption rise through April, all running the same demand-recovery story the rating agencies cited Monday — high renewables penetration, a 0.7% surplus, EV stock and a data-centre pipeline cushioning the Iran-war energy shock.

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Outlook: Wednesday's BCP-CTT-EDPR-JM Q1 Print Is the Single Heaviest Day of the Lisbon Earnings Calendar — EC Spring Forecast and the Trump 25% EU Auto Tariff on the Same Tape

Wednesday 6 May 2026 is the densest single-session of Lisbon's Q1 earnings calendar this season. Banco Comercial Português prints standalone Q1 before the open with the Polish Bank Millennium +68% Q1 already on the tape and the BdP's tightened mortgage supervisory regime as the line-of-sight backdrop; consensus is grouped around a low-single-digit decline in net profit from the credit-impairment-reversal base effect that has compressed the BPI and Montepio reads to date. CTT Correios de Portugal publishes Q1 after the market with the 5.15% pre-earnings de-risk from Monday now baked into a tape that has already absorbed the Iran-war shipping-cost channel and the EU postal services VAT-status debate; the May 7 analyst teleconference is on the company's published calendar. EDP Renováveis prints alongside parent EDP's Thursday-Friday read, with the Iberia-and-North-America wind-and-solar pipeline and the Brazilian capex window the dominant risk lines; Jerónimo Martins closes the day with the Polish Biedronka and Iberian Pingo Doce-and-Recheio book into the consumer-staples beat-or-miss trade. The Navigator Company and REN follow on Thursday 7 May; EDP Thursday-Friday. The European Commission Spring Forecast publishes Wednesday morning with an updated Portugal-specific growth-and-deficit path; the autumn 2025 forecast sat at a 0.3% deficit read for 2026 (revised from the spring 2025 0.6% number), and the running CFP and IMF reads now sit at 1.9% growth and 3.1% inflation with a small-deficit slip-risk on the Government's nominal-zero balance call. The Trump 25% EU auto tariff announcement from yesterday's Truth Social post stays the dominant cyclical-industrials overhang on the tape, with Volkswagen Autoeuropa, Continental Lousado and the broader component-supplier stack the indirect channel; ACAP's read of Portugal's direct exposure as limited sets the benchmark, but the European auto trade tape is now the dominant cross-market read into Friday's US non-farm payrolls and the next ECB meeting cycle.