Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Ends Week Near 9,290, H1 M&A Slumps 38%, Earnings Season Nears

Portuguese Equities

The benchmark PSI index closed the week on the front foot, adding about 0.4% on Friday, 11 July, to finish near 9,291 points. That capped a gain of roughly 0.8% across the week — a steadier tone after the previous week's wobble, when the index shed more than 1% in a single session to bounce off the 9,200 line. Lisbon still sits a little below the multi-year peak around 9,410 touched in late June, but summer volumes are thinning and the market has drifted sideways rather than sold off.

Blue-Chip Movers

Retail heavyweight Jerónimo Martins led the large caps, firming around 1.3% to about €17.15 as investors leaned into defensives ahead of results season. Banco Comercial Português (BCP), the country's largest listed bank, added roughly 0.9% to €1.09, extending a strong run for the lenders, while paper-and-pulp maker Navigator gained close to 0.8%. On the softer side, Galp Energia slipped about 1.4% to €18.55, tracking a pull-back in Brent crude after a volatile stretch for oil; utility EDP eased a fraction to €4.55, and construction group Mota-Engil gave back around 0.6% to €4.78.

Government Bonds

Portuguese sovereign debt held firm. The yield on the 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro (Treasury bonds) hovered around 3.27%, little changed on the week, leaving the spread over the equivalent German Bund (the euro area's benchmark safe asset) at roughly 48 basis points. That is close to the tightest levels since before the sovereign-debt crisis and, on some maturities, has Portugal trading through France — a striking marker of how far the country's credit standing has recovered.

Euro and the Dollar

The euro drifted lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD easing to about $1.091 from near $1.099 a week earlier, a decline of roughly 0.7% as firmer United States data lifted the greenback and trimmed expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. For Portuguese exporters and the tourism trade, a softer euro is a modest tailwind heading into the peak summer season.

Deal Flow: First-Half M&A Slumps

Fresh figures on the first half of 2026 show Portugal's mergers-and-acquisitions market cooling sharply: around 195 transactions worth some €2.3 billion, down about 38% by deal count and 49% by value against the same period last year. The standout deal remains Groupe BPCE's roughly €6.7 billion takeover of Novo Banco, a transaction large enough to skew the entire half-year tally, while real estate was the busiest sector with about 30 deals. Advisers expect technology, healthcare, energy and financial services to drive whatever recovery comes in the second half.

Earnings Season Opens

The corporate calendar now dominates the outlook. Portugal's blue chips begin reporting first-half and second-quarter results over the coming days and into early August, with Jerónimo Martins, Galp, EDP, BCP, Navigator, Semapa and NOS all on the docket. Investors will be watching Jerónimo Martins' Polish and Colombian margins, Galp's refining and upstream numbers against softer oil, and the banks' net interest income as the European Central Bank's rate path levels off. Results will set the tone for Lisbon through the thin summer weeks.

The Week Ahead

Expect a slow start to trading before earnings provide direction: with light summer liquidity, index moves may be exaggerated in either direction, and the standouts to watch are the first blue-chip results, the Brent crude price for Galp, and United States inflation data for the euro-dollar rate.