Markets, Business & Tech Briefing -- March 2, 2026

PSI Index: Near 15-Year Highs

The PSI closed at 9,276 points on Friday, up 0.09% on the session and 7.07% over the past month. The index is now trading at levels not seen since June 2008, having gained over 36% in the past 12 months. Analysts at Trading Economics project a slight pullback to 9,196 by end of Q1, with a more pronounced correction to 8,383 over 12 months.

EUR/USD: Euro Eases to 1.1771

The euro slipped 0.34% against the dollar on Friday to 1.1771, down 0.40% over the past month but still up 12.25% year-on-year. The stronger euro reflects continued ECB caution on rate cuts despite easing inflation. For dollar-earning expats and remote workers in Portugal, the exchange rate remains favourable compared to 2024 lows.

Inflation: Ticks Up to 2.1%

Portugal's inflation rate rose to 2.1% in February, up from 1.9% in January. The increase is modest and remains close to the ECB's 2% target, but it reverses a recent downward trend. Food and energy prices remain the primary drivers, with services inflation also proving sticky.

Unemployment: Steady at 5.6%

Portugal's unemployment rate held at 5.6% in the latest data (December 2025), a marginal improvement from 5.7% the previous month. The labour market remains tight by historical standards, though youth unemployment and underemployment in the interior regions continue to present challenges.

Real Estate: Commercial Investment Hits 2.8 Billion Euros

JLL's latest report confirms commercial real estate investment reached 2.8 billion euros in 2025, up 21% year-on-year. Retail led at 30%, followed by offices and the Living segment. International capital accounted for 70% of flows. Data centres are emerging as a key growth area, with Portugal's renewable energy capacity cited as a competitive advantage.

Construction Costs: IMI Benchmark Rises to 570 Euros/sqm

The average construction cost per square metre used in IMI property tax calculations rose to 570 euros in 2026, up from 532 euros. The 38-euro increase directly affects property tax bills across the country. Homeowners should expect modest IMI adjustments when this year's assessments arrive.

Digital Government: Portugal Climbs to 3rd in OECD Index

Portugal jumped from 11th to 3rd in the OECD Digital Government Index 2025. AICEP is marketing the result as a key differentiator for foreign investment. The ranking evaluates digital service delivery, data strategy and technology integration in public policy.

AIMA: New AI System for Communications

AIMA's CLARA project, an AI tool for triaging and managing email communications, won the 2025 Digital Transformation Award. The system is still being implemented but aims to address one of the agency's most persistent bottlenecks. AIMA's new Renewal Portal for residence permits is also now live.

Aviation: United Airlines Boosts Lisbon-Washington Capacity

United Airlines announced increased capacity on its Lisbon to Washington Dulles route, adding to the growing roster of transatlantic connections. TAP, Delta and other carriers have similarly expanded Portugal routes in recent years as tourism and business travel grow.

UK-EU Reset: TCA Review Advances

The UK and EU are pushing ahead with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement review in 2026, with negotiations on SPS alignment, emissions trading and a youth experience scheme ongoing. For Portugal, deeper UK-EU ties matter: the UK remains a major source of tourists, property buyers and retirees. Any deal that eases travel and trade friction benefits the Portuguese economy directly.

Dam Tax Rulings: Courts Back Municipal Revenue

A third court ruling in Mirandela has upheld the classification of hydroelectric dams as taxable buildings for IMI purposes, with the Miranda do Douro dam valued at over 111 million euros. The decisions could generate significant new revenue for rural municipalities in Tras-os-Montes that host major energy infrastructure.