Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: Bolsa Shut on Sunday at 9,067, Mello's 50-Plus Cap Table Carries the €330M Ercros Print, EDP Locks São Paulo to 2058 With a 5-Billion-Real Plan, AdC Phase-II's Better Foods–Cerealis

Bolsa Closed for the Sunday Session at 9,067.26 — Weekly Read Locks in a 1.06% Drawdown, Monday Reopens With the 9,000 Line as the Proximate Downside Test

Euronext Lisbon's regulated cash market is shut on Sunday 10 May 2026 as the second of the two weekend non-trading sessions; trading resumes at the open on Monday 11 May. The PSI sits at 9,067.26 points through the weekend at the Friday close — down 67.04 points or 0.73% on Friday and a cumulative 1.06% on the week — and the cross-market window has run a 7% Brent unwind, a 0.63% EUR/USD push and a 1bp Portugal 10-year compression through the same five sessions. The EDP earnings-reaction round drove the index move: the Wednesday Q1 print showed a 12% year-on-year drop in headline net profit to €378 million on the lower Iberian wholesale-electricity tape, and the analyst-day round close ran the parent stock 2.02% lower on Friday alone, a 3.5% cumulative two-session move that wiped out the post-Iran-peace rally. Navigator printed Q1 net profit down 64% to €17.2 million on storm-damage costs at the Figueira da Foz and Vila Velha de Ródão complexes, and Caixa Geral de Depósitos' Q1 net profit edged 1% higher to €397 million with Paulo Macedo booking a record €1.25 billion dividend back to the State on Thursday's late tape. NOS +1.25%, Galp +0.90% and Jerónimo Martins +0.70% ran the Friday leaderboard as a defensive-rotation sequence, with BCP closing roughly flat after Thursday's +1.39% AGM-approval move and the post-record-Q1-print rotation through the dividend-and-buyback news. The 2.97% drawdown off the 9,344.96 high-water mark printed on 30 April sits on a 9,000 proximate-downside-test framework that the bank desks are now reading as the live test of the post-holiday rotation if Friday's hawkish ECB repricing extends into a fourth session — and Monday's open will run through the BdP Síntese de Conjuntura 11:00 macro release and the INE Atividade Económica March note running into the bell.

Grupo José de Mello's 50-Plus Shareholder Cap Table Carries the €330 Million Ercros Print Into the €1.5 Billion 2030 Envelope — Sixth Generation Already at 80 Members, Salvador de Mello CEO at 5.56%

The largest discrete corporate-flow read on Sunday's tape is Grupo José de Mello's post-protocol-revision shareholder structure — more than 50 shareholders across six generations of the family eight years after the twelve siblings of the fourth generation took the decision Salvador de Mello has called a 'decisão corajosa' to tear up the original protocol signed under the patriarch's lifetime. The sixth generation alone counts roughly 80 members, several already adults; the new family protocol was formalised in June 2020. Public 2024-vintage shareholder data prints the largest individual holdings as Gonçalo José de Mello (7.38%), Maria Amélia José de Mello Bleck (6.68%), Pedro José de Mello (5.93%), CEO Salvador de Mello (5.56%), João José de Mello (4.08%) and Vasco de Mello (3.86%), with the rest split across a long tail at roughly 0.25% per head — the textbook generational-dilution dynamic the protocol revision was designed to address. Only four or five family members work directly inside the operating companies, with the rest treated as long-term capital partners. The operating perimeter sits across five core platforms: CUF (the integrated private healthcare group, the largest contributor to consolidated revenue), Bondalti (Iberian chemicals), Winestone (wine-and-vineyard arm), Lifthium (lithium-refining venture for the European battery-grade chain) and the 17% residual Brisa stake. The most material capital deployment of the new generation is the Bondalti–Ercros takeover: after a contested OPA, Bondalti closed on 77% of the Spanish chemicals group in March 2026 for €330 million, integrating the chlorine-and-PVC chain and the intermediates platform into the Bondalti perimeter and producing the largest single Mello acquisition since the Brisa-era M&A. The deal anchors the group's €1.5 billion investment plan through 2030; consolidated 2024 revenue came in at €1.487 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with net profit at €81 million on a heavier capex-and-integration cost line. The cap-table print sits as the structural read on the next decade of Portuguese family-controlled industrial M&A: the protocol-revision template is one of the cleanest blueprints in the Iberian peninsula for handing forward decision rights to the fifth generation while keeping the holding structure intact, and the next governance test will be the sixth generation entering shareholder age over the coming decade.

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EDP Locks the EDP São Paulo Distribution Concession to 2058 With a 5-Billion-Real Investment Plan Through 2030 — Brasília Signing With Lula and Alexandre Silveira Anchors the Second Brazilian Concession Renewal in Ten Months

The dominant single-name-utility print on the Sunday tape is the EDP — Energias de Portugal renewal of the EDP São Paulo electricity-distribution concession, signed in Brasília on Thursday 8 May 2026 in the presence of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira; Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, EDP's CEO, and João Brito Martins, the group's South-American president, attended for the Portuguese side. The new concession runs to 2058 — a fresh 30-year term — and books a 5-billion-real investment plan across the licence area through 2030, roughly €866 million at the spot. EDP São Paulo's perimeter covers 2.2 million residential, rural and industrial clients across 28 municipalities, organised in four regional concession blocks: Guarulhos, Alto Tietê, Vale do Paraíba and Litoral Norte. The renewal is EDP's second concession extension under the 2024 federal recontracting framework, after the EDP Espírito Santo licence was renewed in July 2025; the 5-billion-real envelope is roughly 30% above the spend EDP committed across the same perimeter in the 2019-2024 period, a step-up consistent with the new architecture's quality-of-service triggers, climate-resilience obligations and tighter capex disclosure. The capital plan covers infrastructure modernisation (substation reinforcement and line replacement on the Vale do Paraíba industrial corridor), system digitalisation (meter-data platforms and the Brazilian rollout of the Iberian smart-grid stack), network automation (feeder automation and self-healing protections to compress SAIDI/SAIFI prints after the post-2023 convective-storm cycle) and climate-resilience (line hardening, vegetation-management and the relocation of vulnerable assets out of flood corridors). Read-through to the parent equity is on the constructive side: the renewal locks roughly 30% of EDP's distribution-platform earnings into a long-dated contracted base through the second half of the 2050s and runs alongside the EDP Espírito Santo renewal as the second leg of the Brazilian licence-cleanup cycle, with the post-Q1-earnings-reaction window now closed and the analyst-day capital-allocation framework set on a 2058-horizon distribution book.

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AdC Phase-II's the Better Foods–Cerealis Milling Concentration on Article 41 — Nacional, Milaneza and Napolitana Held Outside Portugal's Largest Miller Pending In-Depth Clearance

The Autoridade da Concorrência escalated the proposed concentration between Portuguese miller Better Foods and Cerealis Moagens to an in-depth, Phase-II investigation on 29 April 2026, citing 'sérias dúvidas' about the operation's compatibility with the competition framework across 'a maioria dos mercados relevantes identificados'. The decision was taken under Article 41 of the Lei da Concorrência, the threshold mechanism that triggers when the regulator cannot clear a deal in the standard 30-working-day Phase-I window. The transaction was announced on 16 December 2025 and would fold Cerealis Moagens — the milling arm of the century-old Cerealis agribusiness group, owner of the household brands Nacional, Milaneza and Napolitana across eleven brand lines — into Better Foods, the country's largest miller, which itself was created in 2018 from the merger of the Ceres and Germen mills. Better Foods today operates four units: Ceres and Germen, Carneiro Campos on the Porto belt, and Granel in the Lisbon region. The combined perimeter would put Portugal's most recognisable wheat-flour and pasta brands and roughly 440,000 tonnes a year of cereal-processing capacity inside the same balance sheet, with Cerealis' four production centres and 760-plus employees folded into the Better Foods footprint. The transaction value has not been disclosed. The regulatory read for the corporate-flow tape: the Phase-II window opens a roughly 90-working-day in-depth probe with the live possibility of remedies — line-of-business divestments, brand-portfolio carve-outs or capacity ring-fences — running into a Q3 2026 decision window, and the print is the most consequential AdC concentration escalation since the supermarket-and-restaurants Phase-II round earlier in May framed the pricing-transmission tape on the food-retail vertical.

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Banking Aggregate Q1 Locks €1.279 Billion in Combined Profit, Up 4.9% — BCP Carries the Tape With +25.6%, Combined Net Interest Margin Slips €21.6 Million as ECB Cuts Bite

The five largest banks operating in Portugal — Caixa Geral de Depósitos, Banco Comercial Português, Novobanco, Santander Totta and BPI — closed Q1 2026 with €1.279 billion in combined net profit, a 4.9% year-on-year increase against the €1.219 billion Q1 2025 print. The five institutions control more than 80% of the Portuguese banking system, so the aggregate is effectively the system print. BCP +25.6% to €305.8 million (with the Polish franchise carrying the contribution and the domestic operation booking €265 million on its own) and Novobanco +13.2% to €200.7 million carry the year-on-year delta; CGD edged 1% higher to €397 million, the largest absolute number on the table; Santander Totta -9.8% to €242.4 million and BPI -2.4% to €133.3 million ran the other way — strip BCP and Novobanco out and the four-bank aggregate would have shrunk year on year. Combined net interest margin fell 1.0%, dropping €21.6 million to €2.191 billion: only BCP improved its margin, up 2.4% to €738.4 million; the other four contracted, the textbook lag of the ECB rate-cutting cycle hitting the variable-rate, twelve-month-Euribor-tied Portuguese mortgage book. New mortgage credit accelerated above 10% year-on-year through March, lifted by the public guarantee scheme for first-time homebuyers under 35 reinforced with €750 million in late 2025. The print runs into the BdP March credit-and-deposits read that booked €4.057 billion in household lending — the first print above €4 billion in the BdP series since 2007 — and frames the live tension on the bank-margins-versus-volume tape into the April BdP credit release scheduled for the back-half of next week.

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Cross-Market Into Monday's Reopen: Brent at $101.73, EUR/USD at 1.1774, Portugal 10-Year at 3.37%, Bund Spread 36bps — IGCP €1.5 Billion OT Auction Lines Up for Wednesday 13 May

The cross-market tape sits in a clean reversal posture into Monday's reopen after Thursday's deflationary-Iran-peace shock and Friday's partial unwind. Brent crude July futures closed Friday at $101.73 a barrel, up $1.67 or 1.66% on the day, with the curve having retraced about a quarter of Thursday's $99.55 low and locked in a roughly 7% on-the-week unwind from Tuesday's $113.54 peak. EUR/USD tagged 1.1774, up 0.41% on the day and 0.63% on the month, on a sharp hawkish repricing of the next ECB meeting that has cleanly reversed the disinflationary-cutting-cycle path through 2025: money markets are now pricing a June rate-hike probability above 75%, a striking shift away from the consensus single-cut window that had been the dominant rates trade through the second quarter and a clean repricing of the deposit-facility-rate floor at 2.15%. The Portugal 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro yield closed Friday at 3.37%, down 1 basis point on the day, down 5 basis points on the month and up 29 basis points year-on-year; the German Bund 10-year ticked higher 1bp to 3.01%, compressing the spread to 36 basis points — a tight reading that holds the IGCP refinancing tail-wind in place. The agency's 13 May auction window books up to €1.5 billion across the 4-year October 2030 line and the 10-year June 2036 tap; the auction calendar runs into a cross-market that has been re-rating the European periphery on the post-Iran-peace risk-on tape and that should keep Lisbon at the tighter-end of the spread distribution if the hawkish-ECB move does not bleed into a Bund-back-up curve.

Outlook: Monday Reopens at 9,067 With BdP Conjuntura and INE Atividade Económica Pre-Market, IGCP €1.5 Billion OT Auction Wednesday 13 May, Mota-Engil Q1 and the Final Earnings Cluster Round Out the Week

Outlook: Monday 11 May 2026 reopens at the 9,067.26 Friday close with three discrete pre-market inputs loaded into the bell — the Banco de Portugal Síntese de Conjuntura May read at 11:00 (the monthly indicator pack that anchors the BdP economic-activity coincident indicator), the INE Atividade Económica em Portugal — Março 2026 note in parallel (the monthly retail-services-industry summary that feeds into the Q1 GDP final estimate due at the end of the month) and the Portaria 213-A/2026 mechanically lifting pump-pricing on the diesel and gasoline curve as the ISP discount is cut by 1.47 cêntimos on diesel and 0.21 cêntimos on gasoline. The IGCP €1.5 billion OT auction on Wednesday 13 May is the live primary-market test for the 4-year October 2030 line and the 10-year June 2036 tap, and the cross-market is now sized for a sharply hawkish June ECB meeting on the 75%-plus rate-hike probability baked into the EUR/USD 1.1774 tape — a clean re-anchoring of the consensus path that should keep the Portugal 10-year sub-3.50% band into the auction window. On the corporate-flow side, Mota-Engil Q1 2026 earnings land Wednesday as the headline name in a final earnings cluster that also brings Sonae SGPS, Semapa, NOS and Altri to tape through Friday's session; the Trabalho XXI anteprojeto walks into the Assembleia da República inbox during the day on the close of the nine-month round without an agreement, with the CGTP 3 June general strike locked in the same window. The Lisbon macro calendar runs the Banco de Portugal April credit-and-deposits print mid-month — the most-watched-domestic print after the March release that booked €4.057 billion in household lending, the first print above €4 billion in the BdP series since 2007 — and the INE April industrial-production release scheduled into the second half of next week, with the post-Q1-trade-balance widening tape and the 2026 GDP Q1 print due late next week the next leg of the macro-data cadence.

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