Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: Bolsa Shut at 9,033 on -0.38% Week, DBRS Lifts Portugal to Positive on 87.5% Debt-to-GDP Path, Semapa Books €513M Q1 on Secil Sale, Visabeira Tenders for 14.4M Martifer Shares at €2.057

Bolsa Shut at 9,033.06 on a -0.38% Net Weekly Read — Friday's -1.00% Single-Session Reversal Locks Cumulative Drawdown Off the 30 April High at -3.34% Into the Weekend, EDPR Scrip-Dividend Drag and Pan-European Long-Duration Sell-Off the Dominant Single-Name Drivers

Euronext Lisbon's regulated cash market is shut on Saturday 16 May 2026 and Sunday 17 May; trading resumes at the Monday 18 May open. The PSI sits at 9,033.06 points through the weekend, down 91.20 points or 1.00% on Friday's single-session close and down a cumulative 34.20 points or 0.38% on the week against last Friday's 9,067.26 settlement — the second consecutive week of net drawdown off the 30 April 9,344.96 high-water mark and a cumulative 3.34% reversal off that print. The week's tape ran a clean two-and-a-half-session round trip — Monday 11 May opened to a soft 0.18% drag on the post-EDP-earnings-reaction window and a residual energy-utilities rotation, Tuesday 12 May printed a 0.51% rebound bid on the NOS Q1 2026 release into the after-close window and the EDPR 2026 Scrip Dividend Programme ex-date mechanics, Wednesday 13 May and Thursday 14 May walked back-to-back green prints on the IGCP 12-year auction bid and the Mota-Engil prospectus amendment to the €110 million retail-bond cap, and Friday 15 May erased the cumulative two-day bid on a one-way European-afternoon red close pulled down by the EDPR -4.03% scrip-dividend mechanical adjustment, the EDP -2.82% parent sympathy print, REN -1.95% regulated-utility long-duration carry-through, Navigator -1.87% on the Hawkins Wright BHKP-pulp headwind reread, CTT -1.48%, Corticeira Amorim -1.13%, and Mota-Engil -1.03% on a take-profit print following the prior session's CMVM-amendment-driven bid. The Friday green-tape ran short: Galp Energia +1.91% as the standout bid on the Brent $109.15 close, Sonae SGPS +0.95% on a defensive-staples rotation, and Jerónimo Martins +0.38% on the same defensive bid through the European afternoon. The 9,000 handle now sits as the proximate downside test on Monday's reopen if the European-wide long-duration sell-off extends into a third session and the OIS-curve repricing of the ECB June 2026 hike probability above the 90% threshold runs the periphery-bond-and-equity beta into a fourth-day window.

DBRS Morningstar Lifts Portugal's Sovereign Trend to Positive Friday Evening Citing the 87.5% Debt-to-GDP Trajectory and the IGCP 91%-Pre-Funded 2026 Issuance Plan — Long-Term Rating Affirmed at A (High), Aligning With S&P A-Flat-Positive-Outlook Ahead of Wednesday's Brussels Spring Forecast

The discrete macro-credit print on the Saturday cycle is the DBRS Morningstar trend-revision action published after the Friday 15 May European close — the Toronto-based agency revised Portugal's sovereign-credit trend from Stable to Positive while affirming the long-term issuer credit rating at A (high) and the short-term rating at R-1 (middle) on the same review cycle. The rationale anchors on the 87.5% debt-to-GDP trajectory the IGCP and the Ministério das Finanças project for end-2026, down from the 92.1% 2025 print and tracking a sustained downward path through the 83% 2027 marker per the latest Stability Programme submission — a path that brings the debt ratio through the 100% threshold roughly three years ahead of the original Stability Programme cadence. The IGCP's 91% pre-funded position on the 2026 issuance plan, the EU NGEU joint-issuance backdrop on the supply side, the S&P A-flat-with-positive-outlook alignment and the Fitch A-flat-stable baseline carry the cross-agency cohort through the next review cycle, with the Moody's A3-positive-outlook framework completing the four-corners assessment. The DBRS action is the second discrete positive-credit-cycle move on the Lisbon tape in the May calendar after the S&P trend revision earlier in the month, and the consensus cross-market read sits with a tightening bid on the Portugal-Bund spread as Monday's secondary tape opens. The Wednesday 21 May Brussels Spring 2026 Economic Forecast for Portugal walks the next clean external-validation input on the 1.9%-2.1% real-GDP-growth-and-inflation-mix consensus baseline and the run-in to the IMF Article IV close-out write-up, with the S&P next-review window and the DBRS next 12-month review the proximate cross-agency catalysts into Q3.

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Semapa Q1 2026 Books €513.3 Million Net Profit on the Secil-Cementos Molins Closing — More Than Ten Times the €39.6 Million Year-Earlier Print, Navigator Carries the Cellulose-and-Paper Run-Rate as the Post-Disposal Pro-Forma Portfolio Refocuses Around the Single Dominant Asset and ETSA

The discrete corporate-earnings print landing on the Saturday morning cycle is the Semapa — Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão SGPS Q1 2026 release filed after Friday's Lisbon close, with the consolidated bottom-line booking €513.3 million in net profit — a print running roughly thirteen times the €39.6 million 2025 Q1 comparable on the back of the roughly €400 million accounting capital-gain line item from the Cementos Molins closing of the Secil sale agreed in February 2026. The €1.0 billion equity-value transaction with the Spanish counterparty cleared the regulatory perimeter inside the end-Q1 2026 calendar window the group had guided to, and Semapa now consolidates Secil only for the partial-quarter contribution to operating EBITDA before the disposal cut-off — the recurring print therefore lines up around the Navigator Company-anchored cellulose-and-paper segment and the smaller ETSA environmental-services arm. The post-disposal pro-forma portfolio refocus anchors Navigator (in which Semapa retains a 69.97% economic interest) as the single dominant asset alongside ETSA; the €500 million capital-return-and-balance-sheet-deleveraging programme management flagged on the deal-signature window remains the proximate use-of-proceeds tape, with the consensus carrying a roughly two-thirds split between balance-sheet deleveraging and shareholder-distribution channels through H2 2026 once the formal use-of-proceeds disclosure clears the next quarterly cycle. Semapa equity closed Friday's session down a token 0.43% at €19.16 ahead of the post-close print; press write-ups on the Q1 release will run through Monday 18 May's open and the Sodim ownership block continues to anchor the structural-shareholder tape against the 30 April annual-general-meeting cycle.

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CMVM Registers Visabeira Indústria's Mandatory Tender Offer for 14,412,198 Martifer Shares at €2.057 — Post-Cazadores 92.13% Consolidation Triggers the Cash-Out Clock Under Article 187 of the Código dos Valores Mobiliários on the 7.87% Free Float

The discrete M&A-and-securities-regulation event on the Saturday tape runs through the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários Saturday-morning registration of Visabeira Indústria SGPS's mandatory tender offer for the residual 14,412,198 Martifer SGPS ordinary shares held by minority shareholders, at a cash consideration of €2.057 per share. The OPA registration follows the closing of the previously announced Cazadores acquisition that pushed Visabeira Indústria's consolidated stake in Martifer through the 92.13% threshold and triggered the statutory one-third mandatory-bid requirement under Article 187 of the Código dos Valores Mobiliários; the offer price is set at the volume-weighted-average price across the prior six months on Euronext Lisbon (rounded to the third decimal), with the regulatory acceptance window opening on a T+10 registration cadence and clearing through to a settlement window inside Q3 2026. Visabeira Indústria's parent Grupo Visabeira (controlled by the Coutinho family of Viseu) consolidates the residual 7.87% minority free float through the cash-out clock and prepares the squeeze-out trigger under Article 196 of the same code if the acceptance rate clears the 90%-plus threshold inside the offer window — the same statutory mechanic running in parallel on the Vista Alegre Atlantis delisting walk where Visabeira's 84.76% block carries to a Thursday 29 May AGM cash-out at €1.07 per share. The Martifer tender closes the Visabeira corporate-tape sequence at the end of a multi-year consolidation walk that ran the metal-mechanical, civil-construction and renewable-energy-equipment perimeter through successive minority-acquisition prints. Martifer equity will trade on the OPA bid through the regulatory window; the read-through to the Visabeira private-equity-style consolidation thesis sits alongside the parallel Vista Alegre delisting and the broader Visabeira-energy-and-industrial-services platform that aggregates the Viseu group's diversified industrial book.

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Cross-Market Into Monday's Open: Portugal 10-Year at 3.55% Up 18bp on the Week, Bund Spread at 44bp From 36bp, EUR/USD at 1.1628 Down 1.24% on the Week, Brent at $109.15 Up 7.3% on the Week, Euribor 3M at 2.239% With OIS Curve Pricing ECB June Hike Above 90%

The cross-market tape sits in a clean dollar-bid-and-bond-rout posture into the weekend after Friday's pan-European long-duration sell-off and the continued Brent geopolitical-risk premium. The Portugal 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro yield closed Friday at 3.55%, up 14 basis points on Thursday's 3.41% and up 18 basis points on the week from last Friday's 3.37% close, with the secondary tape repricing the renewed energy-led inflation print into an ECB June 2026 hike probability above the 90% threshold on the OIS curve from the 75%-plus reading the prior week. The Bund 10-year tagged 3.11% on a 7-basis-point Friday move, the Italian BTP 10-year printed 3.86% on a similar 7-basis-point bid, and the Portugal-Bund spread widened to roughly 44 basis points against last Friday's 36 basis points — a sequential widening that still sits inside the year-to-date range and well below the 78-basis-point March high but partially reverses the post-IGCP-auction tightening of the Wednesday-and-Thursday window; the Saturday DBRS positive-trend action should lean against the widening on Monday's reopen as the structural cross-agency credit-cycle backdrop carries through the secondary tape. EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1628 on the ECB reference fix, down 0.63% on Thursday and down 1.24% on the week from last Friday's 1.1774 print on a fifth-consecutive-session dollar bid, with the cross now sitting a full handle below the 1.17 pivot the consensus had been tracking and the cumulative pull-back from Monday 11 May's above-1.175 three-week high running roughly 1.0%. Brent July futures parked around the $109.15 a barrel handle into Friday's European close, up roughly 7.3% on the week from last Friday's $101.73 level on the continued Iran-tension-and-Strait-of-Hormuz geopolitical-risk premium that the Thursday-morning reported sinking of an Indian-flagged tanker ran through the cross-market tape — the $110 handle now sits as the next discrete resistance level the consensus is tracking. The Euribor 3-month fixing prints at 2.239% against Thursday's 2.252% as the front-end transmission digests the back-end repricing; the 6-month at 2.485% and 12-month at 2.798% continue to carry the next-ECB-meeting hawkish bias into Monday's open.

Brisa Closes 2025 at €173.4M Net Profit Down 44% on a Non-Recurring 2024 Base, TVDE Segment Tops €808M Revenue +36% in 2025 on the 38,000-Driver Footprint — Corporate-Flow Round-Out on a Saturday That Loads the Multi-Story Cycle

The two discrete supporting prints on the Saturday corporate-flow cycle run the Brisa Concessão Rodoviária 2025 FY release and the ANTRAL/ACP-tracked TVDE sector aggregate. Brisa — controlled by the José de Mello/APG/Arcus shareholder consortium and operator of the largest motorway-concession network in Portugal — closed 2025 at €173.4 million in consolidated net profit on roughly €2.4 billion in turnover and an EBITDA lift versus 2024, with the bottom-line print running 44% below 2024's €309.5 million on a non-recurring 2024 base that included one-off financial-line items and a positive deferred-tax move that did not repeat in 2025. The underlying traffic-revenue trend ran broadly in line with the consensus on the toll-and-electronic-tag receipts curve through the Via Verde infrastructure, and the contribution to the José de Mello SGPS consolidated print walks into the parent's late-May reporting window; the post-result tape on Brisa-issued debt continues to carry the BBB-flat-investment-grade S&P framework across the issuance perimeter. Portuguese TVDE sector revenue closed 2025 at €808 million, up 36% on the 2024 comparable, with the Uber-Bolt-FreeNow platform tape carrying a registered-driver pool of more than 38,000 across the regulated Decreto-Lei 45/2018 framework — the platform-economy-and-mobility cluster running a structural-volume tape against a domestic-taxi base that ANTRAL continues to track at roughly 12,500 licensed vehicles. The read-through walks the macro-mobility curve alongside the parallel Uber Boats May launch in Lisbon and the fundo de mobilidade €148 million programme that anchors the broader transport-modernisation cycle into the Q3 PRR-disbursement window.

Outlook: Mota-Engil €110M Bond Subscription Closes 15:00 Tuesday 19 May at 4.60% Coupon, Sonae SGPS Q1 Tuesday 20 May, Brussels Spring Forecast Wednesday 21 May, Altri Q1 Thursday 21 May, Pump Prices Reverse Higher From Monday With Gasolina 95 at €2.016/L

Outlook: Monday 18 May 2026 reopens at the 9,033.06 Friday close with three discrete inputs loaded into the bell — the DBRS Morningstar positive-trend upgrade as the live primary-market input on the secondary-spread tape and the run-in to the Mota-Engil €110 million sustainability-linked-bond subscription close on 15:00 Tuesday 19 May at the 4.60% fixed annual coupon after Thursday 14 May's CMVM amendment doubled the cap from €50 million on the Banco Finantia-led syndicate's €155 million book from 4,800 retail investors; the Portaria 213-A/2026 ISP-and-mark-up cycle prints pump-prices higher from Monday's open with gasolina 95 landing at €2.016 per litre (up 4 cêntimos) and gasóleo simples tracking a similar reverse-higher print on the same Brent-and-ISP transmission; and the 9,000 PSI line remains the live downside test if the European-wide long-duration sell-off extends into a third session. Tuesday 20 May walks the Sonae SGPS Q1 2026 results pre-market with the post-Petco Norway/Musti Pet-care segment read-through anchoring the consumer-services equity beta and the +45% international-sales 2025 FY print and the 1,070-store international-network expansion the consensus baseline for the Q1 print. Wednesday 21 May drops the Brussels Spring 2026 Economic Forecast for Portugal as the next cleanest external-validation input on the 1.9%-2.1% real-GDP-growth-and-inflation-mix consensus baseline ahead of the IMF Article IV close-out write-up. Thursday 21 May books Altri Q1 2026 with the conference call on Friday 22 May against a Hawkins Wright BHKP-pulp-price reference index that ran roughly 11% lower across the quarter and the Friday 22 May Mota-Engil Euronext Lisbon retail-bond listing. Tuesday 26 May prints the Altri €0.25 per share ordinary dividend ex-day with payment on 28 May. Thursday 29 May walks the Vista Alegre Atlantis delisting AGM through the cash-out clock at €1.07 per share against the 5.24% free float — Visabeira's 84.76% block printing the squeeze-out trigger under Article 196 of the Código dos Valores Mobiliários and the Cristiano Ronaldo CR7 investment vehicle's 10% stake walking through the same minority cash-out window — running in parallel with the Saturday-registered Visabeira Indústria mandatory tender offer for Martifer at €2.057 per share on the 92.13% consolidation block. The macro-and-political-economy overlay continues to anchor the medium-term consumer-and-services equity beta on the back of the Trabalho XXI labour-reform bill that the Conselho de Ministros approved Thursday 14 May for the Assembleia da República walk and the CGTP 3 June general strike pré-aviso locked into the same window.