ECFR May Poll Tops Portugal at 59% Support for EU Common-Debt-Financed Defense Across 15 Countries — 42% Now Want a Bigger Budget to Cut US Reliance, Up From 26% in 2025
ECFR's May 1-19 survey of 18,000 across 15 European countries puts Portugal first at 59% support for common EU debt to finance defense — ahead of Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain. Backing for a bigger budget to cut US reliance rises to 42% from 26% a year ago.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released on 10 June 2026 a new edition of its annual European security survey, and the headline number lands firmly in Portuguese hands. Across 15 nations and roughly 18,000 respondents polled between 1 and 19 May, Portugal ranks first on willingness to back common European Union debt to finance defense, at 59% support. The reading places Portugal three points ahead of Denmark (56%), four ahead of the Netherlands (55%), and six ahead of Spain (53%).
The Portuguese sample of 1,003 adults carries a 4.19% margin of error. ECFR senior policy fellow Pawel Zerka attributes the wider shift in European opinion to “increasingly pragmatic” reactions to the Trump administration’s posture on NATO and Ukraine — and the Portuguese answers fit the pattern.
The clearer story is that the year-on-year movement on defense spending is steep. In 2025, only 26% of Portuguese respondents said they would support an increase in the national defense budget to reduce dependence on the United States. In 2026, that figure jumped to 42%, narrowly trailing the United Kingdom (43%) and Poland, which itself rose from 51% to 59%. The pan-European average climbed from 18% to 22% over the same period. Portugal now sits 20 points above that mean — and level with Denmark.
Portugal also leads the survey on EU eastward enlargement, with 50% backing the accession of Ukraine and other candidates, the highest of any of the 15 countries polled. On the question of whether a defense alternative to NATO would be a “good idea,” 38% of Portuguese said yes — also the highest figure recorded. On opposition to Russian energy imports, 47% described continued purchases as a “bad idea.”
The political timing matters. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s government has been pushed by Brussels and NATO toward higher defense outlays under the 2% of GDP target, and the European Commission’s June 2026 European Semester package separately flagged Portugal’s fiscal-benefits reform as “limitada.” A 59% public mandate for joint EU defense borrowing gives the Ministério da Defesa Nacional (Ministry of National Defence) and the Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) unusual political room to back European-level instruments — including the European Commission’s SAFE loans (Security Action for Europe), the €150 billion vehicle Portugal has been weighing since spring.
The survey also confirms that Portuguese voters track much higher on a national troop contribution to a future Ukraine peace mission than the European median — 53% support, fourth among the 15 polled. That stands in contrast to last week’s Lajes-base parliamentary debate, where PCP and Bloco de Esquerda failed to secure a formal inquiry into United States use of the Azores facility during operations against Iran.
What the ECFR data suggests is a notable convergence: a Portuguese public that historically prized neutrality and Atlanticism is increasingly comfortable with EU-level military spending, common borrowing, and even institutional alternatives to NATO. For Brussels treasurers planning the next round of joint defense financing, that is a quiet but consequential constituency.
