Portuguese Business Confidence Surges to 88%, But Leaders Warn the State Is Holding Them Back

Portuguese business leaders are more optimistic than they have been in years, but they are directing their sharpest criticism at the very institution meant to support them: the state. The 46th Executive Digest Barometer, published Monday, reveals a business community ready to invest and grow — if the government will get out of the way.

Sectoral optimism has climbed to 88 percent, up eight points from December's survey. Of those, 82 percent of executives anticipate moderate growth in their industry, with 6 percent expecting strong growth. Investment intentions have surged correspondingly: 56 percent of companies plan to increase capital expenditure in 2026, a jump of more than ten percentage points from the previous quarter.

The State Paradox

The survey's most revealing finding is what researchers are calling the "state paradox." A comfortable 72 percent of business leaders approve of the current government's reform agenda. Yet 78 percent simultaneously describe the state's weight in the economy as either "high" (50 percent) or "excessive" (28 percent). The message is clear: executives want reform to succeed, but they see the sprawling public sector as the primary obstacle to competitiveness.

When asked to name the top national priority for the coming decade, 74 percent chose "State and Public Trust" — encompassing simplification, digitalisation, and efficiency — ahead of education (64 percent) and healthcare (46 percent). Despite this clarity of vision, confidence in Portugal's ability to execute remains guarded. Sixty-two percent of leaders rate the country's preparedness as merely "moderate," acknowledging progress while noting persistent structural weaknesses.

AI Goes Mainstream

Artificial intelligence has crossed the threshold from strategic planning to operational reality. Seventy percent of executives say they will invest more or continue investing heavily in AI this year, up from 53 percent who were planning to do so in December. Only 2 percent of companies report not using AI at all. For a country that has long punched above its weight in technology talent, the rapid adoption rate suggests Portuguese firms are not merely following global trends but competing within them.

The Blue Economy Emerges

In a new addition to the survey, the barometer gauged attitudes toward the "Blue Economy" — Portugal's maritime and ocean-based economic potential. The results suggest business leaders see the sea as a genuine strategic frontier: 58 percent consider the blue economy a topic of growing or essential importance. Meanwhile, 64 percent believe the government's Strategic Plan for the Sea 2030 requires immediate action, reinforcing Portugal's long maritime history with contemporary economic urgency.

For a country with the third-largest exclusive economic zone in the European Union, the ocean represents more than heritage — it is an untapped engine of growth in aquaculture, renewable energy, biotechnology, and shipping. Whether the political class can match the private sector's appetite for action remains the central question.