Portaria 213-A/2026 Quietly Lifts the ISP Discount on Diesel and Gasoline as Brent Cracks Below $100 — Government Pockets 1.47 Cêntimos on Diesel and 0.21 on Gasoline as ACP's Forecast Drop Hits the Pumps on Monday 12 May

Portaria 213-A/2026, signed off by the Ministério do Ambiente, Energia e Mar and published in the late-edition Diário da República on the afternoon of Friday 8 May 2026, narrows the extraordinary and temporary ISP discount that Portugal has been carrying on roadway diesel and unleaded gasoline since the spring fuel-shock cycle began. The new rates take effect on Monday 12 May and book a small but visible piece of next week's retail-price relief into the State's revenue line rather than into the consumer's pocket.

The Numbers

The portaria sets the new ISP discount levels as follows:

• Diesel rodoviário: discount cut from €75.48 to €60.78 per 1,000 litres — a 1.47 cêntimos per litre increase in the effective ISP burden.
• Gasolina sem chumbo: discount cut from €51.97 to €49.80 per 1,000 litres — a 0.21 cêntimos per litre increase in the effective ISP burden.

The Automóvel Club de Portugal's weekly survey, used by the trade as the consensus forecast, had already pencilled in a roughly 9 cêntimos drop on diesel and a 2 cêntimos drop on gasoline for the week of 12-18 May, on the back of the Brent slide below $100 — Brent for July delivery printed at $99.55 on Wednesday and bounced to $101.29 on Thursday after the Trump-Iran Hormuz Project Freedom pause. The portaria therefore takes part of that wholesale relief back into State revenue rather than letting all of it land at the pump.

Why the Government Moved

The ISP discount is extraordinary and temporary by design. The government's reference logic — set out in the original 2022 instrument and renewed monthly through 2024-2026 — adjusts the discount level so that retail prices do not rise above the pre-shock baseline. With wholesale prices now retreating from the early-May peak, the technical justification for the maximum discount weakens. Secretary of State for Energy Jean Barroca framed the adjustment in policy terms on Friday: the government will continue to absorb significant price increases through the discount, but does not see itself as a permanent subsidy on the consumption side.

The move also sits inside a wider fiscal frame: the IMF Article IV mission published on 7 May explicitly recommended phasing the fuel-excise relief out as crude prices normalised, and Brussels has been pressing Portugal on the same point since the autumn 2025 monitoring round.

What This Means at the Pump on Monday

Net of the ISP move, the ACP's central forecast for Monday 12 May becomes:

• Diesel: roughly 7.5 cêntimos drop at the average station — the headline 9-cent wholesale move minus 1.47 cêntimos of recovered ISP.
• Gasolina simples: roughly 1.8 cêntimos drop — the 2-cent wholesale move minus 0.21 cêntimos of recovered ISP.

Galp, BP, Repsol and the white-label networks publish their concrete sexta-feira evening pricing at around 18:00; final at-the-pump prices for Monday morning are typically locked between Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

The Hormuz Tape Still Sets the Risk

The portaria carries a Hormuz risk attached: if the de-escalation reverses inside 24-48 hours and Brent retraces above $105, the wholesale forecast collapses and the ISP discount the government just shaved becomes the buffer the government has just lost. The mechanism, however, is bidirectional — a re-escalation triggers the same consultation between Finanças, Energia and the IMT-equivalent fuel-pricing observatory that has produced weekly portarias through the spring.

Practical Notes for Foreign Residents

• If you commute on diesel: Monday 12 May is a fill-up day; the wholesale tape is currently the dominant signal and the State has only clipped a fraction of it.
• If you have a fuel-card contract: the ISP changes flow through automatically — the discount is applied at the refinery output, so your invoice line for the week of 12-18 May will already reflect the new burden.
• If you run a fleet: ANTRAM-aligned operators have already started recalculating the cláusula de revisão de preços; the 1.47 cêntimos / 0.21 cêntimos differential is small but takes effect from Monday and will appear in the May invoicing cycle.

The next portaria adjusting the ISP discount level is expected on Friday 15 May, on the standard weekly cadence the government has held throughout the spring shock.