Markets, Business & Tech Briefing — Tuesday, 3 March 2026

Portugal's markets, property, business and tech scene — your Tuesday morning rundown.

PSI-20 at Highest Level Since 2008

Portugal's main equity index closed at 9,173 points, a level not seen since June 2008. The index has gained 6.94% over the past four weeks and is up 34.5% year-on-year. Financial and consumer goods sectors led recent gains. Broader European sentiment remains cautiously positive, with the EUR/USD hovering near recent ranges.

OECD Projects 2.2% GDP Growth for 2026

The OECD's January economic survey forecast Portugal's GDP expanding 2.2% this year, up from 1.9% in 2025, supported by rising real incomes, strong domestic demand, and continued drawdown of EU Recovery and Resilience Plan funds before the 2026 deadline. Headline inflation is expected to ease to 2%.

House Prices Set for Another Year of Above-Average Growth

Analysts at BPI and S&P Global project property price growth of 5-8% in 2026 — below the double-digit pace of 2024-25 but still outpacing wage growth. Alentejo Litoral properties are now averaging €2,128/m², while Lisbon and Porto prime stock remains among the most expensive in Southern Europe. Rent cap for existing contracts is fixed at 2.24% for 2026 under the NRAU mechanism.

Portugal Ranks Third in OECD Digital Government Index

Portugal climbed from 11th to 3rd place in the OECD's Digital Government Index 2025, reflecting significant investment in e-government services, interoperability, and digital public infrastructure. The jump positions Portugal ahead of most EU peers in government digital transformation — relevant for businesses navigating public procurement and licensing processes.

AIMA's Golden Visa Backlog: €85 Million at Stake

Portugal's immigration agency AIMA continues to work through a significant backlog of Golden Visa applications, with the government having pledged clearance this year. Analysts estimate that resolving the pipeline could unlock up to €85 million in revenue, while investor frustration — particularly from Brazilian and US applicants — risks deterring future capital allocation to Portugal's qualifying investment funds.

Digital Nomad D8 Visa Remains Active at €3,680 Monthly Income Threshold

Portugal's D8 digital nomad visa continues to attract international remote workers, with a required monthly income threshold of €3,680 and a processing time averaging approximately four months. The visa has become a key channel for tech workers and freelancers relocating from North America, Brazil, and Asia — sustaining demand for furnished rentals and co-working spaces in Lisbon, Porto, and increasingly in Madeira and the Algarve.

Labour Reform Uncertainty Creates Business Planning Headwinds

The unresolved status of the Trabalho XXI labour package is creating genuine uncertainty for businesses planning hiring and HR strategy. The proposed changes — including easier dismissal procedures and expanded fixed-term contract options — would benefit some employers while complicating the workforce planning of multinationals with strong union agreements in place. Today's Social Concertation session is the immediate decision point.

Tourism Infrastructure Investment Accelerates Ahead of High Season

Hotel group Tivoli confirmed the Alvor Algarve Resort reopens March 23, one of several major tourism properties undertaking off-season refurbishment before the peak summer period. Portugal's tourism sector recorded back-to-back record years in 2024 and 2025; forward bookings for 2026 summer remain robust despite the broader European economic uncertainties.

EU Funds Deployment Under Pressure as 2026 Deadline Approaches

Portugal faces increasing pressure to deploy remaining Recovery and Resilience Plan funding before European Commission deadlines at the end of 2026. Several infrastructure and housing programmes remain behind schedule, raising the prospect that some allocated funds may go unspent unless administrative acceleration is achieved in the second half of the year.

The Portugal Brief — markets and business intelligence for Portugal's international community.