Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Hits One-Month High, Jerónimo Martins Sinks to Fresh Low, TAP Bids Loom
Friday, 3 July 2026. Euronext Lisbon stretched its rebound into a second session, closing at a one-month high as the EDP energy complex and construction names powered a broad advance. Yet the day had a glaring outlier: retail heavyweight Jerónimo Martins bucked the rally to sink to a fresh one-year low, dragged by deflation in Poland. Below, where the PSI settled, what bonds and a firmer euro are signalling, why the market's biggest grocer is going the wrong way, and the state's flagship airline sale as it enters its decisive month.
Lisbon extends its rebound to a one-month high
The PSI closed Friday at 9,328.28 points, up 1.40% (a gain of about 128 points) and its best level in a month, a second straight advance on top of Thursday's 1.20% rise. The benchmark now sits within reach of its 9,516 high for the year and well clear of the 7,522 floor touched earlier in 2026, leaving it comfortably higher over the past twelve months. The rally was broad: rising stocks outnumbered fallers roughly 20 to 9, with five names unchanged. The EDP energy family led the blue chips, with the utility climbing 2.97% to €4.69 and green-power arm EDP Renováveis adding 2.20% to €14.37, reversing its role as Thursday's lone laggard. Construction group Teixeira Duarte topped the board with a 3.23% gain to €0.54, and heavyweights including lender BCP, utility peer REN — Redes Energéticas Nacionais (National Energy Networks) and builder Mota-Engil joined the move higher.
Bonds nudge up, the euro firms
In fixed income, the Portuguese 10-year yield edged up to about 3.33%, some 3 basis points higher on the day as euro-area yields drifted north ahead of a fresh batch of US and European data. With the German 10-year Bund near 2.95%, the spread widened slightly to around 38 basis points — still historically compressed and a continuing endorsement of Portugal's public finances, which have earned Lisbon some of the lowest funding costs in the euro-zone periphery. The single currency held its recent strength: EUR/USD traded around 1.1460, hovering near a multi-week high as the dollar stayed soft with US markets shut for the Independence Day holiday.
Jerónimo Martins bucks the rally, sliding to a one-year low
The day's conspicuous exception was Jerónimo Martins, which fell 1.37% to €16.60 — a fresh 52-week low — even as almost everything around it climbed. The retailer's problem is not in Portugal but in Poland, where its discount chain Biedronka (Ladybird), the single biggest engine of group sales, entered 2026 operating in outright deflation: shelf prices are falling, rivals are leaning harder into promotions and margins are being squeezed even as volumes flatline. That combination produced a bigger-than-expected 31% drop in first-quarter net profit, as the margin hit more than offset higher Polish turnover, and the pressure has extended to the group's Polish health-and-beauty format Hebe, which is trading through the same intense price war. With no sign of Polish competition easing, investors have kept marking the shares down, leaving one of Lisbon's most valuable companies drifting steadily lower while the broader index rallies — a divergence that has become the standout corporate story on the exchange.
TAP's privatisation enters its decisive month
The state's flagship asset sale is coming to a head. The government has shortlisted Air France-KLM and Lufthansa as the two strategic bidders for TAP Air Portugal, and binding offers are due by the end of July — putting the airline privatisation into its most consequential stretch. The two European groups are vying for a 44.9% strategic stake, with a further 5% earmarked for employees and the state retaining a controlling position. Once bids land, the holding company Parpública (State Holdings) begins a roughly 30-day technical review, with a final government decision targeted for late August or early September. Infrastructure Minister Miguel Pinto Luz has called the two proposals "largely equivalent and very ambitious" in strategic, industrial and financial terms, signalling that the headline valuation may ultimately prove decisive. TAP's draw is its network: prized slots and routes linking Lisbon to Brazil, Portuguese-speaking Africa and the United States, a bridge into fast-growing markets that neither suitor can easily replicate.
Outlook for Monday
With Wall Street closed on Friday for Independence Day, European markets set the tone alone, and the question into Monday is whether Lisbon can hold a one-month high for a third session or whether the two-day bounce fades. Watch whether Jerónimo Martins can find a floor after its fresh low, and expect TAP to stay in focus as the end-July binding-bid deadline draws nearer. A steady euro and firm risk appetite remain the backdrop heading into the new week.
