Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI Ends Week Up 0.4%, Oil Tumbles, Pulp Lags
The latest Portugal news, analysis, and what it means for expats and residents.
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📋 In This Edition
- PSI: A Choppy Week Closes Modestly Higher
- Top Movers: Pulp Drags, Energy Swings With Oil
- Government Bonds: Yields Pinned Near Multi-Year Lows
- Euro: Slips Below $1.14 as the Dollar Firms
- Business & Tech: Oil's Worst Week in a Month
- The Week Ahead
PSI: A Choppy Week Closes Modestly Higher
Portugal's benchmark PSI index finished the week at 9,136.18 points, up roughly 0.4% (about 34 points) from the previous Friday's 9,102.60 close — a gain that flatters what was in fact a directionless, range-bound five sessions. The index swung between a Monday high of 9,168.22 and a Wednesday trough of 9,055.89, never settling on a trend. Thursday's 1.12% rebound did most of the heavy lifting before Friday gave a little back, easing 0.23%. On a one-month view the PSI is essentially flat; over twelve months it remains up about 21%, still one of the stronger performances among Western European benchmarks.
Top Movers: Pulp Drags, Energy Swings With Oil
The week's clearest laggards were the paper-and-pulp names — The Navigator Company, Semapa and Altri — which weighed on the index into Friday's close as softening pulp prices and a firmer euro squeezed export margins. Energy was the swing factor: Galp tracked a sliding crude price lower late in the week, while the EDP complex (EDP and EDP Renováveis) and lender BCP (Banco Comercial Português) provided the mid-week lift that powered Thursday's bounce. Retail bellwether Jerónimo Martins and Sonae traded steadier, offering ballast as the cyclical names whipped around.
Government Bonds: Yields Pinned Near Multi-Year Lows
Portugal's borrowing costs stayed remarkably benign. The 10-year Obrigações do Tesouro (Portuguese Treasury bonds) yield slipped a further basis point to 3.25% on Friday, hovering near its lowest levels in years. The spread over the equivalent 10-year German Bund held at around 33 basis points — historically tight, and a continued vote of confidence in Portugal's investment-grade credit and its budget-surplus trajectory. With the European Central Bank (ECB) on hold and euro-area data soft, there was little to push yields in either direction.
Euro: Slips Below $1.14 as the Dollar Firms
EUR/USD edged up 0.13% on Friday to 1.1385 but spent the week on the back foot, down about 2% over the past month. The move reflects broad US dollar strength — markets are pricing a firmer Federal Reserve path — set against weak euro-area activity, with preliminary purchasing-managers' surveys showing Germany's private sector contracting at its fastest pace since 2024. A softer euro is a mild tailwind for Portugal's exporters and tourism receipts, but it sharpens the pinch of dollar-priced energy imports.
Business & Tech: Oil's Worst Week in a Month
The dominant macro story for Lisbon-listed energy was crude's sharp retreat. Brent slid to around $72 a barrel on Friday — its lowest since 27 February and a drop of roughly 10% on the week, the steepest weekly fall in a month — as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated and a feared Middle East supply shock failed to materialise. The slide pressured Galp through the back half of the week and tempered inflation worries, but it also clouds the near-term earnings outlook for Portugal's largest energy group. Lower pump and wholesale prices, meanwhile, are a net positive for Portuguese households and transport-heavy businesses heading into the peak summer travel season.
The Week Ahead
Trading resumes Monday with the calendar firmly in focus: binding bids for flag carrier TAP are due in July, keeping the privatisation in the headlines, while month-end and quarter-end positioning, fresh euro-area inflation prints and any follow-through from oil's slide should set the early-week tone. Expect Lisbon to take its direction from Brent and the broader European open — with the pulp names and Galp the most likely sources of volatility.
