Markets, Business & Tech Briefing: PSI +0.13% to 8,931, Corticeira Leads, Sogrape Profits Halve

Top gainers

• Corticeira Amorim +1.41% to €6.47 — leader of the day, lifted by sustained buying after this week's downstream-margin commentary at the AGM and incremental flow into its EDP-Isigenere cork floater partnership for the Alqueva photovoltaic expansion.
• EDP +1.24% — outperformed peers on the back of the cork-floater renewable news cycle and as the OMIE forward curve steepened into the long weekend.
• Teixeira Duarte +1.09% to €0.4175, Sonae +0.75% to €1.8880, Jerónimo Martins +0.06% to €17.72.

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Decliners

• Ibersol -3.40% to €10.22 — heaviest faller on profit-taking after this week's restaurant-sector rerating.
• NOS -0.68% to €4.960 — telco weakness continued; the stock has traded heavy since the May regulatory update on the 5G spectrum rebid.
• EDP Renováveis -0.64% to €14.03 — the green sleeve lagged its parent for a second session as the bund repricing pressured long-duration utilities.
• CTT -0.34% to €5.94, Altri -0.10% to €4.885.

Sovereign curve: OT 10-year edges back above 3.45%

Portuguese government paper sold off in sympathy with core European debt as traders digested the May US Nonfarm Payrolls print of +172,000 jobs, nearly double the +85,000 consensus and a number that re-anchored expectations of a higher-for-longer Fed path. The Portuguese 10-year OT yield rose 2.5 bps to 3.451%, while the German 10-year Bund closed at 3.04% (+2 bps). The OT-Bund spread held in a tight ~41 bps, broadly unchanged on the week and well inside the 60 bps level last visited in February. The IGCP has no scheduled auction next week, leaving the curve to take its cues from Tuesday's German ZEW print and Wednesday's US CPI.

FX: euro firms past 1.16

The single currency climbed to $1.1640 against the dollar at the ECB's 16:00 CET reference fix — its strongest reading this week and the third consecutive session above 1.16 — as European yields outpaced their US counterparts despite the strong payrolls. The euro's tone has been buoyed all week by reduced cross-Atlantic rate-differential risk and continued portfolio inflows into peripheral debt.

Corporate & tech briefing

Sogrape FY2025: net profit collapses by more than half

The Avelar family-controlled wine group Sogrape SGPS released audited 2025 accounts today, posting net profit down more than 50% from the €16 million booked in 2024. The Vila Nova de Gaia-headquartered owner of Mateus, Sandeman, Ferreira and Casa Ferreirinha brands flagged tariff headwinds in the US market, a cooling premium-Port segment, and currency translation drag on Argentinian and Chilean operations as the main culprits. The release lands less than nine months after the group declared the 2024 Porto Vintage for the Ferreira and Sandeman houses — both shipped to global wholesalers from June 2026. Management said the second half of the year remains "determinant" for closing 2026 on a positive trajectory.

Anthropic milestone: 80% of production code now written by Claude

San Francisco AI lab Anthropic disclosed today — and the news led tech coverage at Público and ECO — that more than 80% of code merged into its own production codebase is now authored by its Claude model, up from roughly 10% a year ago. Co-founder Jack Clark used the disclosure to call publicly for a coordinated industry pause to evaluate the risk of recursive self-improvement. The disclosure is closely watched in Lisbon's startup scene where Cleverly, Unbabel, James and other Portuguese AI-tooling shops have built workflows around the Claude API, and where Start Campus's Sines hyperscale build for Microsoft is being supplied by Nscale with Nvidia Blackwell Ultra and (from late 2027) Rubin-class GPUs that will run frontier inference workloads for the European market.

Compete 2030 SME tender hits the market

Today's Compete 2030 Productive Innovation tender opened with a €182.5 million envelope for SMEs pre-registered in the May expression-of-interest window — a meaningful supply-side stimulus to industrial capex pipelines in the second half. We covered the tender release separately in today's general briefing.

Outlook for Monday

With Lisbon closed Saturday and Sunday, traders return Monday morning to Tuesday's German ZEW sentiment, Wednesday's US May CPI and Thursday's ECB account of the May Governing Council. Domestically, INE's April industrial production print drops on Tuesday — a series that has alternated between marginal contraction and shallow growth all year. Expect peripheral spreads to remain rangebound unless the CPI surprises materially to the upside.

Sources: Euronext Lisbon, Jornal Económico, ECB reference rates, Trading Economics, Investing.com, ECO, Público, IGCP. Compiled by The Portugal Brief markets desk.

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