Euribor 3-Month Climbs to 2.252% on Wednesday 13 May — Highest Print Since April 2025 as the Six-Month Settles at 2.485% and the Twelve-Month Reaches 2.798%, Putting Mild Pressure on Portuguese Variable-Rate Mortgages

The benchmark grind has reversed. The three-month Euribor fixed at 2.252% for the 13 May print — its highest level since April 2025. The six-month settled at 2.485% and the twelve-month at 2.798%, with the one-month at 1.972% and the one-week at 1.907%. The shape of the curve — short end below 2.00%, three-month and longer above — tells you the market has stopped pricing further near-term ECB cuts and started pricing patience.

What Changed and What Did Not

The ECB Deposit Facility Rate sits where it sat through the first quarter, and there is no indication from Frankfurt that another cut is being prepared for the June meeting. What has changed is the term-premium side of the Euribor curve. Six months ago the three-month was printing through 2.10% and the twelve-month through 2.50%; today's 2.798% twelve-month is a clean break above that range. Markets are now telling banks: your funding cost over the next year is going up, not down.

For the rate setters at the BCE Governing Council, the slope is the awkward bit. A 12-month at 2.80% against a one-month at 1.97% is a steeper Euribor curve than the institutions of the Eurosystem have been comfortable seeing — it signals that the disinflation trade is fading and that the next move in policy is not obviously a cut.

Where This Hits in Portugal

Portuguese household mortgages are overwhelmingly variable-rate, with the contractual reference typically reset every six months off the six-month Euribor or, in older loans, the three-month. The 13 May fixings translate, very roughly, into the following arithmetic on a stylised €200,000 outstanding mortgage at 25 years with a 1.00 percentage-point spread:

• Six-month-indexed loan at 2.485% Euribor plus 1.00% spread → contractual rate ~3.485%. That is roughly €10-15 higher per month than the average reset done in the autumn 2025 window, depending on the day of the original fixing.
• Twelve-month-indexed loan at 2.798% plus 1.00% spread → contractual rate ~3.798%. The annual-resetters who fixed last spring at sub-2.50% Euribor are the ones who will feel this most when their reset date lands.

The macroprudential context is that the Bank of Portugal's stress assumption set already pencils in resets up to 3% Euribor, so the system can absorb today's print without renewed default-risk repricing. Individual households on the margin, however, will see the difference on their May and June bank statements.

What This Means for Expats

• Variable resets just tilted up. If your Portuguese mortgage is six-month-Euribor-indexed and the next reset falls in May or June, expect a modest upward adjustment — single tens of euros on a typical Lisbon or Porto loan, not the hundreds seen in 2022-2024.
• The fixed-rate trade is closing. Portuguese banks have been offering five-year fixed deals in the 3.20-3.60% range for new origination. With the twelve-month Euribor at 2.80%, that fixed-versus-floating spread has narrowed — and is likely to narrow further over the summer if the curve continues to steepen.
• New buyers should run two scenarios. Stress-test affordability at 4.00% Euribor as well as 2.50%. The Bank of Portugal's macroprudential framework expects you to; banks already do.
• Deposit-rate pass-through stays slow. Even with three-month back through 2.25%, Portuguese retail term deposits are not following one-for-one. The bank-funding system is awash with liquidity from the deposit-mountain build-up, so depositors keep losing the spread.