Diesel Set to Jump Eight Cents Next Week as Europe Weighs Fuel Rationing Measures

Fuel prices in Portugal are heading for yet another painful week. According to the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP), diesel is forecast to rise by eight cents per liter and petrol by 3.5 cents when pumps reset on Monday — adding to what has become the most sustained fuel price surge in recent memory.

Since the week of March 2, before the US-Israeli strike on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, diesel prices have accumulated an increase of 44.2 cents per liter and petrol 21.4 cents. Even with the government's emergency ISP tax discount — currently 7.6 cents per liter on diesel and 4.1 cents on petrol (rising to 9.4 and 5.1 cents respectively once VAT incidence is factored in) — drivers are absorbing the bulk of the increase.

Brent Crude Surges Past 109 Dollars

Brent crude futures climbed 7.6 percent on Friday to 109.10 dollars per barrel, the highest level in nearly four years. The spike came after US President Donald Trump threatened to intensify strikes against Iran and its infrastructure unless Tehran accepts American ceasefire conditions. Iran rejected the demands, calling them "aggressive rhetoric," and any brief optimism from reports of Oman brokering a shipping fee arrangement for Hormuz-transiting tankers evaporated quickly.

At its peak in recent weeks, Brent briefly touched 140 dollars per barrel — a level not seen since 2008 — before pulling back. But the sustained trading above 100 dollars is what matters for consumers at the pump: it translates directly into higher refinery costs and, within days, higher retail prices.

Europe Explores Conservation Measures

Portugal is not alone in feeling the squeeze. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has urged EU member states to adopt demand-reduction measures, telling governments to "inspire themselves" with the International Energy Agency's recommended conservation toolkit. "The more you can do to save petroleum, especially diesel and especially aviation fuel, the better we all are," he said on March 31.

Globally, the IEA has catalogued 66 distinct measures already being implemented. Some are dramatic: Sri Lanka has introduced mandatory QR codes linked to vehicles and phone numbers at every petrol station, enforcing per-vehicle fuel quotas. Several Asian and Latin American countries have imposed speed limit reductions, mandatory telework days, and restricted public lighting hours. Some European countries are encouraging four-day work weeks and switching off advertising billboards earlier to reduce energy consumption.

Portugal has so far stopped short of rationing or mandatory restrictions, relying instead on ISP tax discounts and the newly announced 600 million euro credit line for businesses. Environment Minister Maria da Graça Carvalho has described energy conservation as "very useful" given market uncertainty, but the government has not translated that into concrete policy — yet.

What This Means at the Pump

For residents and expats driving in Portugal, the math is straightforward. A 50-liter tank of diesel that cost roughly 75 euros in early March now costs approximately 97 euros, even after the government discount. If Monday's predicted increase materializes, that figure crosses 101 euros — a psychological threshold that is already pushing some drivers to fill up across the border in Spain, where prices remain significantly lower.

The question now is whether the government will deepen its ISP discount or introduce more targeted measures. With the ride-hail sector already hemorrhaging vehicles and public transport operators warning of service cuts, the pressure for a broader response is building. How long Portugal can avoid the conservation measures spreading across the rest of Europe may depend entirely on what happens next in the Gulf.