Bastonária Paula Franco Says IRS Refund Pipeline Has "Practically Stopped" with Thousands of Declarações por Liquidar — Ordem dos Contabilistas Flags Reform Results Still Not Showing Up

Paula Franco, Bastonária of the Ordem dos Contabilistas Certificados (OCC, Order of Certified Accountants), used a Sunday 7 June interview on Conversa Capital — the joint Antena 1 / Jornal de Negócios programme — to warn that the IRS (Imposto sobre o Rendimento das Pessoas Singulares, Personal Income Tax) refund pipeline has "practically stopped" after a fast start to the campaign. Thousands of declarations remain by liquidar (unprocessed), and the OCC's chief said she sees "no justification" for the slowdown.

Automatic declarations — the IRS Automático track introduced in 2017 and now used by most pensioners and single-source employees — moved quickly at the front of the campaign, Franco said. But the broader tape has decelerated sharply since. Late refunds have direct cash-flow consequences for households that filed in March or April expecting funds by early summer, and they are increasingly relevant for newcomers under the IFICI / NHR 2.0 (Incentivo Fiscal à Investigação Científica e Inovação) regime, where the refund delivers back tax withheld at standard rates pending the regime's confirmation.

The housing fiscal package — well aimed, not a miracle

Franco's reading of the spring 2026 housing fiscal package was sympathetic but cautious. The headline measures are positive, she said, but they come bundled with conditionantes (conditions) that can block execution in practice. She singled out the IVA (Imposto sobre o Valor Acrescentado, Value Added Tax) reduction to 6% on autoconstrução (self-construction) — already in force for owner-occupiers — where the qualifying conditions are tight enough to be "fatal for the proprietor" if the paperwork drifts even slightly.

The measure she sees as most operative is the mais-valias (capital-gains) reinvestment exemption for sellers who roll proceeds into properties earmarked for arrendamento (rental). That, she said, could have gone further still — extending the exemption window or relaxing the holding period — and remains the single line item most likely to add stock to the long-term rental market over the 12-month horizon.

PSU still needs explaining

On the Prestação Social Única (PSU, Single Social Benefit) — the consolidated benefit the Government is pushing through the Assembleia da República (AR, Parliament) and which Chega has tied to an immigrant-aid carve-out — Franco recognised the policy merit of bundling the benefits to curb cumulative abuse. But she pressed the same point Segurança Social itself has been getting from social-services NGOs: the design has to be explained clearly to recipients, and that means keeping atendimento presencial (in-person attendance) at full strength rather than redirecting people to portals.

Reform results still not landing

Franco's broader verdict on the Government's wider fiscal reform programme was blunt: the intentions are good, the results "are still not being felt." Continued IRS rate reductions — the headline campaign promise — could continue, she said, but they have to land against a backdrop in which the Autoridade Tributária e Aduaneira (AT, Tax and Customs Authority) processing capacity is keeping up with the reforms on paper.

The AT has not yet published an updated dashboard of pending IRS declarations for the 2026 campaign. The next data point pensioners, employees and IFICI applicants will be watching for is the June 30 mid-campaign release — the metric that usually decides whether the refund tail clears by the start of the summer holidays or slips into September.