Alcochete Airport: Government Confirms Location but Questions ANA's Traffic Forecasts

The decades-long saga of Lisbon's new airport took another step forward this week, but the government's confirmation of the Alcochete site came with a notable caveat: it does not trust the traffic projections submitted by airport operator ANA.

In a formal response to ANA -- Aeroportos de Portugal, the government confirmed that the new Lisbon airport will be built at the eastern end of the Alcochete Shooting Range, a location that aligns with the preferred solution studied by the Independent Technical Commission and matches the site that received a conditionally favourable Environmental Impact Statement back in 2010.

Scepticism Over Traffic Numbers

While the location is now officially settled, the government reiterated reservations about ANA's passenger traffic forecasts. The concession holder, owned by French infrastructure giant Vinci, has submitted projections that the government considers overly optimistic, though specific figures have not been made public.

This matters because traffic projections drive the scale and phasing of the project. If ANA is overestimating demand, Portugal could end up building capacity it does not need in the short term. If the government is being too conservative, the country risks repeating the chronic overcrowding that has plagued Humberto Delgado airport for years.

Next Steps and Timeline

According to the government communique, the next milestones are the delivery of a technical report by 16 July 2026 and the submission of a full Environmental Impact Study to the Portuguese Environment Agency, also expected in July. If those proceed on schedule, construction could begin within the next two to three years.

Prime Minister Luis Montenegro has been vocal about pushing Vinci to accelerate. At a meeting last week, he pointedly noted that Portugal is Vinci's most profitable airport operation globally. "You cannot, with respect, expect us not to demand investment that corresponds precisely with that profitability," he told the company's leadership.

What the New Airport Means for Residents

For Portugal's large foreign resident community, the Alcochete decision has practical implications. The new airport, expected to open by 2037, will be located on the south bank of the Tagus, connected to Lisbon by road and eventually by rail. For those living south of the river or in the Setubal district, access will improve dramatically. For residents in central Lisbon, the question of transport links will be critical.

The project will also reshape the real estate market around Alcochete and neighbouring municipalities. Property investors are already watching the area closely, though significant price movements are unlikely until construction timelines become more concrete.

Meanwhile, residents near the current Humberto Delgado airport, who have long endured noise pollution and safety concerns from aircraft flying over dense urban areas, may eventually see relief. The government has indicated that the current airport will continue to operate in a reduced capacity after the new facility opens, though its long-term future remains undecided.

For a country that has debated where to put its main airport for the better part of half a century, the Alcochete confirmation is progress. But the gap between choosing a site and opening a terminal remains vast, and the government's public scepticism about ANA's forecasts suggests the negotiation over what gets built, and when, is far from over.